for Saturday, 06 August 2011 [7:45 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 135 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 135 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 028
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Sat 06 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #048/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) just barely a Typhoon while over the East China Sea...accelerating NNW towards the Shandong Peninsula, China.
Meanwhile, Typhoon MERBOK remains over the open waters of the Western Pacific, halfway between Japan & the International Dateline...refer to http://www.typhoon2000.ph/storm2.shtml for various warnings regarding the "not-so-important" cyclone.
MUIFA will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along a wide-swath of Western Philippines (from Western Luzon, Western Visayas, Palawan, down to Western Mindanao).
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Sat August 06 2011
Location of Eye: 28.8º N Lat 125.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 361 km ESE of Ningbo, China
Distance 2: 437 km SE of Shanghai, China
Distance 3: 430 km ENE of Wenzhou, China
Distance 4: 376 km NW of Okinawa City
Distance 5: 384 km NW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 6: 393 km NW of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 7: 485 km North of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 8: 540 km NE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 20 kph (11 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea-Shandong Peninsula
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 963 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sat Aug 06
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NNW across the East China Sea and into Yellow Sea Area for the next 2 days. By 24 hours, this system will be just a Tropical Storm (TS) as it passes over the Shandong Peninsula. Continued weakening will be expected as MUIFA makes landfall along Liaoning Province by late Monday afternoon. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Intensify slightly as it passes well to the east of Zhejiang Province' Coast...about 271 km ESE of Shanghai, China [2AM AUG 07: 30.8N 124.2E @ 130kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Just barely a typhoon while over the Yellow Sea...approaching Shandong Peninsula...about 294 km NNE of Shanghai, China [2PM AUG 07: 33.3N 123.3E @ 120kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the southern coast of Shandong Peninsula...downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 199 km East of Qingdao, China 2AM AUG 08: 35.9N 122.5E @ 110kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Over the coast of Liaoning Province...prepares to make landfall...about 311 km NE of Qingdao, China [2PM AUG 08: 38.5N 122.1E @ 100kph].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the NE coast of Zhejiang Province, China...passing about 240 km ENE of Shanghai [ETA: between 5:00-7:00 AM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Further weakening can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 963 kilometers (520 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) after making landfall over Liaoning Province...recurves towards the NE [2PM AUG 09: 43.0N 123.3E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Dissipated over land...just a remnant low along Heilongjiang Province [2PM AUG 10: 46.2N 127.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay especially along the northern quadrant. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYE - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (East China Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Coastal areas of Zhejiang Province, Naje, Okinawa & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Cheju Island, Western Coast of Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 150 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Eastern Coast of China (Zhejiang), Naje, Okinawa, & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Cheju Island, Western Coast of Kyushu...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces of China, Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands tonight. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Taiwan, Ishigakijima and Western Kyushu. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 4 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES (Western Luzon down to Western Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 06 AUGUST POSITION: 28.7N 125.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM NORTHWEST OF
KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS THE PREVIOUSLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) HAS NOW BECOME CLOUD-CLOVERED. CONVECTION IS SLOWLY
BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE SOUTHWESTERN QUADRANT OF THE LLCC WITH
CONVECTIVE BANDS CONTINUING TO WRAP AROUND THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN
HALVES. A 06/0531Z AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO DEPICTS THE
STRONGEST CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN AND EASTERN HALVES OF THE
LLCC. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED MSI AND
MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF
65 KNOTS. 06/00Z UPPER AIR STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES TY MUIFA IS
SOUTHEAST OF A WEAK UPPER LEVEL RIDGE AXIS IN A REGION OF WEAK (10-
15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS GOOD RADIAL OUTFLOW, WITH POLEWARD OUTFLOW SLOWLY IMPROVING.
TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER HONSHU, JAPAN. THIS
SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO SLIGHTLY INTENSIFY DURING THE NEXT 12-24 HOURS
AS ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST) REMAIN FAVORABLE AND
OUTFLOW IMPROVES IN ADVANCE OF AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH.
VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN FAVORABLE DURING THE NEXT 24-48 HOURS AS
WELL. TY MUIFA WILL CONTINUE TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN EXTENT OF
THE DEEP-LAYER STR DURING THE NEXT 48 HOURS. AFTER TAU 48 AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH WILL WEAKEN THE STR AND CAUSE TY 11W
TO GRADUALLY MAKE A TURN TO THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. SSTS WILL
BEGIN TO DECREASE AFTER TAU 24, AND VWS WILL BEGIN INCREASING AFTER
TAU 36. THIS WILL RESULT IN A STEADY DECREASE IN TY 11WS INTENSITY.
INTERACTION WITH THE CHINESE LANDMASS WILL ALSO CONTRIBUTE TO
DECREASING INTENSITIES. ONCE TY MUIFA MAKES LANDFALL IN CHINA AFTER
TAU 72 IT IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
OVER LAND BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR AGREEMENT
WITH SLIGHT DIFFERENCES IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD.
THIS FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF MODEL
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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