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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 03 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #034/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) has been wobbling northwestward while aiming dangerously towards Okinawa. This system maybe on its way to another Eyewall Replacement. This system will continue to pull the SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms across Western & Southwestern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Western Bicol.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed August 03 2011
Location of Eye: 24.1º N Lat 132.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 580 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 885 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,145 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,190 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,290 km NE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,320 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,430 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,625 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 03
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to maintain slowly intensify as it turns WNW within the next 24 to 48 hours. Its core shall pass very close or directly over Okinawa Island by Friday early morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): Moving WNW in the direction of Okinawa...about 460 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 03: 24.5N 131.8E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa...about 300 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa [2AM AUG 04: 24.9N 130.3E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Strengthens to Category 4...just along the coast of Okinawa...about 150 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa 2PM AUG 04: 25.4N 128.8E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Passing very close to the South of Okinawa Island...about 50 km SSW of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa [2AM AUG 05: 26.0N 127.6E @ 215kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing very close to the south of the island...about 55 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 3:00-4:00 AM JST Friday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3...moving farther away from Okinawa...turns NW towards Eastern China [2AM AUG 06: 27.8N 125.3E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2...just along the coast of Eastern China [2AM AUG 07: 30.1N 123.6E @ 175kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1...sidesweeps the coast of Eastern China...turns NNW-ward [2AM AUG 08: 33.4N 121.9E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation maintaining an intense with organized spiral band-convection on all quadrants. The typhoon's core is currently showing a 39-km clear, irregular eye...with another possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) on the way. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
IRREGULAR EYE (39-km diameter) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Iwo To, Bonin & other nearby small islands...expected to arrive over Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands sometime today. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Bonin-Iwo To Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 03 AUGUST POSITION: 23.8N 133.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS A CLEAR 21 NM IRREGULAR EYE. A 02/1703Z 89 GHZ AMSU
IMAGE SHOWS A SECONDARY CONCENTRIC CONVECTIVE BAND BEGINNING TO FORM
AROUND THE MAIN EYEWALL. HOWEVER, ANIMATED TOTAL PRECIPITABLE WATER
IMAGERY SHOWS RELATIVELY DRIER AIR TO THE WEST OF TY 11W WHICH MAY
HINDER THE SECOND CONVECTIVE RING FROM COMPLETELY ENCOMPASSING THE
EYEWALL AND THEREFORE POSSIBLY INHIBIT ANOTHER EYE WALL REPLACEMENT
CYCLE. TY 11W WILL CONTINUE TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARD BY A DEEP
LAYERED BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE CENTERED APPROXIMATELY SOUTHEAST
OF HONSHU, JAPAN. THERE IS HIGH CONFIDENCE IN THE INITIAL POSITION
DUE TO THE EYE FEATURE AND THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS STEADY AT
110 KNOTS AS ALL REPORTING AGENCY DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES HAVE
DONE THE SAME...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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