for Wednesday, 24 August 2011 [7:15 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Wed 24 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm 14W (MINA) is now internationally known as NANMADOL - named after a historic place in Pohnpei Island, Micronesia. It is refer to as the "Venice of the Pacific." The storm is currently almost stationary over the Philippine Sea, with a slight NNE motion.
In the coming days, TS NANMADOL may likely have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with another developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be very minimal to none. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional showers across the archipelago.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Wed August 24 2011
Location of Center: 16.2º N Lat 127.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 483 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 572 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 609 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 740 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 85 kph (45 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 100 kph (55 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 989 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to move slowly towards the North to NNE, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without directly affecting any land areas. This system will continue to slowly gain strength within the next 2 days. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (WED): Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm as it moves slowly Northward...about 650 km East of Cauayan, Isabela [2PM AUG 24: 16.6N 127.8E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (THU): Continues to intensify while maintaining its slow Northward movement...about 563 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM AUG 25: 17.1N 127.8E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (THU): Intensifies to near-typhoon strength...about 657 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [2PM AUG 25: 17.7N 127.9E @ 110kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon...veers towards the NNE...about 675 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2AM AUG 26: 18.3N 128.1E @ 120kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 85 km/hr (45 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 100 kilometers (55 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to intensify while moving NNE to NE-ward [2AM AUG 27: 19.5N 128.8E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its intensification process as it moves slowly towards the NE [2AM AUG 28: 20.6N 130.1E @ 140kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength while moving away from the Philippines. A possible interaction between a developing cyclone (97W) NW of Guam may take place during this time. [2AM AUG 29: 21.9N 131.8E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation more improved with expanding spiral bands and a developing Central Dense Overcast (CDO) at the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (85-100 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-84 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas. However, its southwesternmost portion continues affecting the coastal areas of the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 450 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 600 mm (very high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) now posing to become the next Tropical Cyclone, likely to reach Tropical Depression (TD) status w/in the next 06 to 24 hrs. The system was located about 378 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (16.2N 142.8E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving NW @ 11 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is now HIGH (90%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) WED 24 AUGUST POSITION: 16.2N 127.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 615 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES STEADY CONSOLIDATION OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC). A RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE SCAN ALSO SHOWS INTENSIFICATION
OF THE MID-LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OVER THE LLCC. TS 14W EXISTS WITHIN A
WELL-ESTABLISHED MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE PHILIPPINE
SEA TO THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE 231200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL
STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR
17N 128E, PLACING TS NANMADOL UNDER A REGION OF HIGH DIFFLUENCE AND
LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING
OUTFLOW, ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
BOTH PGTW AND RJTD. TS HAS BEEN DRIFTING SLOWLY POLEWARD IN A VERY
WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. AVAILABLE MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR
AGREEMENT AND HAS ALSO BEEN INCONSISTENT FROM RUN TO RUN. THE JTWC
FORECAST LEANS MORE TOWARD THE ECMWF, GFS, UKMO AND JGSM SOLUTIONS,
WHICH HAVE REMAINED FAIRLY CONSISTENT WITH A SLOW NORTHWARD TO
NORTHEASTWARD TRACK THROUGH TAU 72. THIS TRACK IS ALSO MORE
CONSISTENT WITH THE TYPICAL TRACKS ASSOCIATED WITH A MONSOON GYRE
PATTERN. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO CONTINUE INTENSIFYING AND SHOULD
REACH TYPHOON STRENGTH BY TAU 72. AS IT TURNS TO THE NORTHEAST AND
CLOSES ON A SYSTEM THAT IS CURRENTLY DEVELOPING WEST OF THE
MARIANAS, TS 14W WILL UNDERGO DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI) WITH
THE SYSTEM THAT IS NOW WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THE PENDING DCI AND
INTRINSIC COMPLEXITY OF THE MONSOON GYRE MAKES FOR A HIGH DEGREE OF
UNCERTAINTY IN THE EXTENDED RANGES...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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