<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 29 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) creeping slowly Northward while to the SW of Iwo To.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon August 29 2011
Location of Center: 23.9º N Lat 140.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 157 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 811 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 303 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,270 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 518 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 975 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM JST Mon Aug 29
TALAS (15W) is expected to move slowly to the north within the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Nearing Typhoon status while moving north slowly...about 151 km WSW of Bonin Island [5PM AUG 30: 25.8N 139.7E @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Upgraded to a Typhoon as it accelerates & turns toward the NW...about 308 km NW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 31: 27.5N 138.1E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon by Tuesday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large with little improvement in its structure...intensification likely. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - affecting & moving into Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bonin Island. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 330 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 29 AUGUST POSITION: 23.8N 140.1E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 715 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 02 KNOT OVER THE PAST SIX
HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS IMPROVING,
TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290342Z AMSR-E 36 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS THAT
THE LOW-LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS BECOME BETTER ORGANIZED AND THE
CENTER IS MORE DEFINED. THEREFORE, THERE IS INCREASED CONFIDENCE IN
THE CURRENT POSITION AND MOTION. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVING OUTFLOW (NEAR-RADIAL) OVER ALL QUADRANTS EXCEPT
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED HIGHER
THAN THE DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS BASED ON OBSERVATIONS FROM IWO
TO, LOCATED 90 NM NORTHEAST, INDICATING SURFACE WINDS SUSTAINED AT
30-40 KNOTS GUSTING TO 50-60 KNOTS PLUS THE TCB. TS 15W IS FORECAST
TO ACCELERATE AND TRACK INCREASINGLY POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 96.
DYNAMIC MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH A 160 NM SPREAD AT
TAU 96. HOWEVER, THERE ARE SIGNIFICANT DIFFERENCES IN TRACK SPEED
WITH ECMWF AND GFS INDICATING MUCH FASTER TRACK SPEEDS AFTER TAU 96
AND NOGAPS, UKMO, AND GFDN SHOWING SLOWER TRACK SPEEDS. TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE CONDITIONS THROUGH TAU 72 AND
SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY OF NEAR 90 KNOTS. THEREAFTER, THE
SYSTEM WILL WEAKEN DUE TO LAND INTERACTION INITIALLY THEN INCREASING
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AFTER TAU 96. MODELS ARE CONSISTENT IN
INDICATING THE STRONG SHEAR ZONE, ASSOCIATED WITH WESTERLY FLOW AND
A FRONTAL ZONE, WILL BE LOCATED OVER THE EAST SEA. TS 15W IS
EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION BY TAU
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved