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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 032
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 08 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #052/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) about to pass just to the east of Shandong Peninsula...continues to weaken over the Yellow Sea.
Weak Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) affecting Western Luzon including Metro Manila...occasional light rains will prevail today.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon August 08 2011
Location of Center: 36.5º N Lat 123.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 309 km WSW of Seoul, S.Korea
Distance 2: 324 km SW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 3: 326 km ENE of Qingdao, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea-Liaoning
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 110 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Mon Aug 08
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving Northward into the Yellow Sea, passing just to the east of Shandong Peninsula later this morning and will make landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border tonight. This storm will continue to decay until its final landfall over NE China on Tuesday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (MON): Approaching the Chinese-North Korean Border...weakens slightly...about 176 km West of Pyongyang, North Korea [2PM AUG 08: 38.7N 123.8E @ 95kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Barely a Tropical Storm (TS) after making landfall near the North Korean-Chinese Border...recurving towards the NE over land...about 262 km NW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2AM AUG 09: 41.1N 124.4E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Just a weak Tropical Depression (TD) as it continues to accelerate ENE across Jilin Province, China...about 480 km NNE of Pyongyang, North Korea 2PM AUG 09: 43.3N 126.3E @ 45kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just a remnant low along Heilongjiang Province, China...accelerating ENE towards Eastern Russia...about 218 km NW of Vladivostok, Russia [2AM AUG 10: 44.5N 130.0E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue losing strength within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers & rains will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay as it moves across the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the eastern coast of Shandong Peninsula, North Yellow Sea, & the Western Coast of the Korean Peninsula. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-99 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Liaoning & Jilin Provinces of China, the rest of the Korean Peninsula, Cheju Island, & South Yellow Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 75 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (high) along areas near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers & rains will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) MON 08 AUGUST POSITION: 36.0N 123.8E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140 NM WEST
OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP
CONVECTION CONTAINED WITHIN A RAINBAND OVER THE KOREAN PENINSULA. A
07/1802Z 89 GHZ AMRE-E IMAGE SHOWS THE FULLY EXPOSED LLCC, WHICH
COVERS THE MAJORITY OF THE YELLOW SEA, AND THE DEEPEST CONVECTION
OVER THE EASTERN SIDE OF THE PENINSULA. THE CURRENT POSITION IS
BASED ON ANIMATED IR AND THE AFOREMENTIONED MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH
GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS HELD SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN
THE PGTW DVORAK ESTIMATE OF 45 KNOTS DUE TO IT BEING BASED ON THE
MODEL EXPECTED T-NUMBER (MET). THE DATA T-NUMBER (DT) INDICATES
SURFACE WINDS OF 55 KNOTS BASED ON THE CLOSEST DEEP CENTRALIZED
CONVECTION BEING SHEARED APPROXIMATELY 15 NM FROM THE LLCC.
THEREFORE, DUE TO THE LARGE EXTENT AND ROBUST NATURE OF THE LLCC,
INTENSITY IS HELD AT 55 KNOTS. RECENT UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS AN ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW THAT TS 11W CONTINUES
TO BE IN A WEAK (10-15 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) ENVIRONMENT
WITH RAPIDLY INCREASING VWS FARTHER TO THE NORTH ASSOCIATED WITH AN
UPPER LEVEL MID-LATITUDE CYCLONE WITH A TROUGH EXTENDING SOUTHWARD.
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW REMAINS VERY HEALTHY INTO TROPICAL UPPER
TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND THERE CONTINUES TO BE
POLEWARD VENTING FROM A CONNECTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HONSHU. BY TAU 24 THE AFOREMENTIONED MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE STEERING STR AND THE SYSTEM WILL BEGIN ITS
NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER SOUTHEASTERN CHINA.
NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIRLY GOOD AGREEMENT, WITH WBAR AND
GFDN INDICATING A MORE SOUTHEASTERN LANDFALL NEAR THE EASTERN NORTH
KOREAN BOARDER. THIS FORECAST FAVORS A MORE NORTHEASTERN TRACK WHICH
IS SLIGHTLY RIGHT OF, AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS, DUE TO KNOWN MODELS
ERRORS IN THIS SCENARIO...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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