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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Currently issuing 3 or 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #019/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) has been tracking NNW slowly along the Babuyan Channel in the Luzon Strait...approaching the Calayan & Babuyan Group of Islands. Typhoon Conditions prevailing across Northern Cagayan, Calayan & Babuyan Islands. Inner rainbands spreading across the rest of Northern Luzon.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Eye: 19.0º N Lat 121.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 46 km ENE of Fuga Is., Cagayan
Distance 2: 47 km SE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 3: 60 km SSW of Babuyan Is.
Distance 4: 61 km NNW of Palaui Is., Cagayan
Distance 5: 70 km NNW of Sta. Ana, Cagayan
Distance 6: 76 km North of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 155 km ENE of Laoag City
Distance 8: 156 km North of Tuguegarao City
Distance 9: 167 km South of Basco, Batanes
Distance 10: 316 km NNE of Baguio City
Distance 11: 497 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Calayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: 2PM Sun-2AM Mon PhT
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to turn NNW slowly during the next 24 hours, before taking a more Northerly track between 36 to 48 hours. The typhoon may re-intensify as it tracks along the warm waters of the Balintang & Bashi Channels tonight. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will approach Calayan Island around midnight...and veer northward - passing close to the west of Batanes sometime tomorrow afternoon (Sunday). NANMADOL shall be off the east coast of Southern Taiwan on Monday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Regains Category 4 strength while over the Balintang Channel while heading toward the Batanes Group...about 101 km North of Calayan Island or 10 km ENE of Calayan Is., Cagayan [2AM AUG 28: 19.3N 121.6E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Continues to intensify while passing west of the Batanes Group...about 80 km WSW of Basco [2PM AUG 28: 20.2N 121.3E @ 220kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken but still at Category 4...moving slowly towards the north...about 62 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM AUG 29: 21.1N 121.3E @ 215kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3 as it bears down the SE Coast of Taiwan...about 129 km SE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2PM AUG 29: 21.9N 121.3E @ 195kph].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Passing close to the west of Batanes...more or less 60 km to the west of Basco [ETA: between 2:00 PM Sunday to 2:00 AM Local Time Monday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some re-intensification can be expected tonight. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 2...moving onshore parallel to the coast of Eastern Taiwan...approaching Hualien City, Taiwan [2PM AUG 30: 22.9N 121.5E @ 175kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 1...making landfall over Eastern Taiwan...just south of Hualien City [2PM AUG 31: 23.7N 121.5E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves across the rugged terrain of Northern Taiwan [2PM SEP 01: 24.6N 121.3E @ 110kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation has started to regain consolidation as it emerges over the Babuyan Channel. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED BANDING EYE - approaching Calayan Island. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting & moving across the Babuyan & Calayan Islands. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bashi & Balintang Channels, Batanes Group of Islands, & the rest of Northern Luzon. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Central Luzon, Southern & Central Taiwan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, & Southern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: VERY STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather tonight until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02; and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 18.5N 122.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 400 NM SOUTH OF
TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 270531Z
AMSR-E IMAGE INDICATES THAT THE SYSTEM IS SKIRTING THE NORTHEAST TIP
OF LUZON BUT HAS MAINTAINED TIGHTLY-CURVED BANDING AND CENTRAL
CONVECTION OVER THE PAST 06 HOURS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATES FAVORABLE UPPER-LEVEL OUTFLOW. TY 14W IS TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE
27/00Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS AN ANTICYCLONE JUST SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU
WITH AN UPPER-LEVEL TROUGH OVER CENTRAL CHINA. MODEL GUIDANCE, WITH
THE EXCEPTION OF NOGAPS AND GFDN, INDICATES THAT THIS TROUGH WILL
PROPAGATE NORTHEASTWARD OVER THE EAST SEA BY TAU 96 WITH THE STR
BUILDING BACK OVER CENTRAL CHINA AND THE EAST CHINA SEA BY TAU 120.
NOGAPS CONTINUES TO DRIVE TY 14W RAPIDLY NORTHEASTWARD INTO 15W.
THIS SCENARIO IS NOW DEEMED UNLIKELY DUE TO THE NEAR 1000 NM
SEPARATION DISTANCE BETWEEN 14W AND 15W. THE REMAINING DYNAMIC
GUIDANCE SUPPORTS THIS NEW FORECAST PHILOSOPHY WITH ECMWF, UKMO,
WBAR AND JGSM INDICATING A TURN NORTHWESTWARD INTO
NORTHERN TAIWAN...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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