for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [1:20 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Due to the very slow movement of NANMADOL, the 3-hourly & hourly updates will not be implemented. T2K will continue issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 215 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
12:00 AM PhT (16:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #016/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Super Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) nearing the East Coast of Cagayan...maintains its track & strength. Inner rainbands continues bringing heavy squalls along Cagayan, Isabela, Quirino & Northern Aurora.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 AM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Eye: 17.9º N Lat 122.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 89 km NNE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 138 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 3: 131 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 140 km NE of Ilagan City
Distance 5: 169 km NE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 6: 207 km NNE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 304 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 424 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 479 km NNW of Metro Naga/CWC
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Today [2AM-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 32 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to continue moving NNW slowly during the next 24 hours, before taking a more Northerly track between 36 to 48 hours. Its intensity will still increase tonight until tomorrow, reaching a peak of 270 km/hr. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will pass along the NE coast of Cagayan later this morning...and pass very close to Batanes by Sunday early morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Intensifies upon moving along the NE Coast of Cagayan...about 81 km ENE of Aparri [8AM AUG 27: 18.7N 122.4E @ 260kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Attains its peak strength as it maintains its NNW movement, approaching the Batanes Group...about 68 km South of Basco [8PM AUG 27: 19.9N 122.1E @ 270kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Starts to weaken slowly...turns northward as it passes over or very close to Batanes...about 44 km North of Basco [8AM AUG 28: 20.9N 122.0E @ 260kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Weakens to Category 4...slowly moving away from the Batanes...about 134 km North of Basco [8PM AUG 28: 21.7N 122.1E @ 240kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Just along the NE Coast...about 81 km ENE of Aparri [ETA: between 5:00-11:00 AM Local Time, Today].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Over or very close to Basco [ETA: between 12:00-6:00 AM Local Time, Sunday, Aug 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 5 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening likely until tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles). NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EVENING: Passing well to the east of Southern Taiwan...recurves to the NNE to NE towards the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Islands [8PM AUG 29: 22.7N 122.8E @ 215kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Weakens to Category 3...moving NE slowly...passing just to the south of the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Island Chain [8PM AUG 30: 23.8N 123.6E @ 195kph].
WEDNESDAY EVENING: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing very close to Ishigakijima...aiming for Okinawa [8PM AUG 31: 24.7N 125.0E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) powerful circulation remains intact & compact...continues to show an impressive deep & symmetric convective rainbands w/ a round eye, measuring 33 km across. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
33-KM EYE - still over water (Philippine Sea)...but nearing the NE Coast of Cagayan Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WESTERN EYEWALL - just along the East Coast of Cagayan...expected to move along Cagayan's NE Coast later this morning. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Cagayan, Quirino, Northern Aurora & Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Rest of Northern Luzon, including the mid-portion of Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 320 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft [>5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Is., Balintang Channel & the Batanes Group of Islands. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather tonight & tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03 and in excess of 185 kph for #04). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 17.7N 123.3E.
*SUPER TYPHOON 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 585 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED HIGHLY SYMMETRIC DEEP
CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO AN 18 NM DIAMETER EYE. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A POLEWARD
OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL TO
THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING PERIPHERIES.
STY 14W IS NOW TRACKING MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTHEAST IN RESPONSE TO AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST. THIS TROUGH HAS
WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) TO THE NORTH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY STEERING THE CYLONE WESTWARD...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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