<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 034
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 08 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #056/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) is about to make landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border...Tropical Storm Conditions expected along this area. Rapid weakening and complete dissipation forecasted within the next 24 to 36 hours, as the system moves over the land mass of Northern China.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern China & North Korea should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon August 08 2011
Location of Center: 39.3º N Lat 124.5º E Lon
Distance 1: 117 km WNW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 2: 100 km South of Chinese-North Korean Border
Distance 3: 295 km NW of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Chinese-North Korean Border
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 30 mm (Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 650 km (350 nm) / Average
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Mon Aug 08
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) will make landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border early tonight, and move over land across Liaoning & Jilin Provinces of China. This storm will start recurving towards the NE or ENE and rapidly dissipate along the rugged terrain of NE China tomorrow evening (Tuesday). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Dissipating over land as it passes over the Chinese province of Liaoning...about 286 km NNE of Pyongyang, North Korea [2AM AUG 09: 41.5N 125.0E @ 75kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it continues to dissipate over land (Jilin Province, China)...about 381 WNW of Vladivostok, Russia [2PM AUG 09: 43.9N 127.3E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over land while moving ENE near the Chinese-Russian Border...about 274 km NNW of Vladivostok, Russia 2AM AUG 10: 45.5N 131.1E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue losing strength & dissipate within the next 24 to 36 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 350 kilometers (190 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 650 kilometers (350 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay as it moves across the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea & prepares to make landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Liaoning Province of China, NW portion of North Korea, & the Northernmost Yellow Sea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Jilin, & Heilongjiang Provinces of China, the rest of the North & South Korea, & the central part of Yellow Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 30 mm (medium) along areas near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 08 AUGUST POSITION: 38.7N 124.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM WEST-
NORTHWEST OF SEOUL, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 12 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS SHALLOW CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH THE MAJORITY OF CONVECTION
CONCENTRATED ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY. A 07/0506Z 89H GHZ AMSR-E
MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGE ALSO SHOWS THIS FRAGMENTED SHALLOW
CONVECTION WRAPPING IN FROM THE KOREAN PENINSULA INTO THE NORTHERN
AND WESTERN QUADRANTS OF TS 11W. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON
THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE, AND
THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON THE PGTW DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY
ESTIMATE. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TS 11W
IN A REGION OF WEAK (10-20 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) WITH
EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW AHEAD OF AN UPPER LEVEL CYCLONE AND GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE SOUTHEAST. TS 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-
LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER SOUTHERN HONSHU. TS
MUIFA CONTINUES TO MAINTAIN A FAIRLY SYMMETRICAL STRUCTURE AND IS
EXPECTED TO MAKE LANDFALL NEAR THE CHINESE-NORTH KOREAN BORDER
DURING THE NEXT 6 TO 12 HOURS. AFTER TAU 12, A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
WILL HAVE BROKEN DOWN THE SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE, AND THE SYSTEM
WILL BEGIN ITS NORTHEASTWARD TURN AND EVENTUALLY DISSIPATE OVER
SOUTHEASTERN CHINA BY TAU 36. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD
AGREEMENT, WITH THE EXCEPTION OF EGRR STRAYING TO THE EAST OF THE
GUIDANCE ENVELOPE DURING THE FIRST 24 HOURS AND GFS TO THE LEFT AT
TAU 36. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST AND REMAINS
SLIGHTLY FASTER THAN CONSENSUS TO ACCOUNT FOR KNOWN MODEL ERRORS
DURING RECURVATURE...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved