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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Tue 30 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
TALAS (15W) now a Typhoon as it continues to move very slowly Northward...Rainbands continues to affect Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima Islands.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Tue August 30 2011
Location of Center: 25.0º N Lat 140.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 123 km WNW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 190 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 3: 292 km SW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,242 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 514 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 04 kph (02 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 33 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 AM JST Tue Aug 30
TALAS (15W) is expected to move slowly to the north-northwest to north during the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify slightly. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifying while moving north slowly...about 228 km WNW of Bonin Island [5AM AUG 31: 27.1N 138.8E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its NW'ly track across the open sea...no change in strength...about 423 km NW of Bonin Island [2AM SEP 01: 28.7N 137.5E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify slightly within the day. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 290 kilometers (155 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) circulation has improved with raincloud convection spiralling inward. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - affecting & moving into Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) & Bonin Island. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Chichi Jima. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 110 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 30 AUGUST POSITION: 24.6N 139.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 650 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 04 KNOTS OVER THE PAST
SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED (IR) SATELLITE IMAGERY DEPICTS TIGHTLY-
CURVED BANDING (TCB) WRAPPING INTO A WELL-DEFINED, EXPOSED LOW-LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 29/1703Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE DEPICTS
THE STRONGEST BANDS IN THE SOUTHEAST AND NORTHEAST QUADRANTS WITH A
WEAKER BAND CLOSER TO THE LLCC IN THE SW QUADRANT. CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE EXPOSED LLCC IN IR WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. INTENSITY
HAS REMAINED STEADY AND IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK
CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 55 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES GOOD DUAL CHANNEL OUTFLOW, HOWEVER, OUTFLOW IS
BEGINNING TO DECREASE ALONG THE WESTERN HALF OF THE SYSTEM. TS 15W
IS EXPECTED TO TRACK NORTHWESTWARD ALONG THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF
THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) THROUGH TAU 72. DYNAMIC MODEL
GUIDANCE HAS SPREAD SIGNIFICANTLY, WITH NOGAPS, EGRR, WBAR, AND GFDN
WELL TO THE LEFT OF CONSENSUS. GFS AND JGSM REMAIN TO THE RIGHT OF
CONSENSUS. ECMWF REMAINS CLOSE TO PREVIOUS GUIDANCE, WITH A LANDFALL
WEST OF THE KANTO PLAIN. ENSEMBLE MODEL GUIDANCE HAD BEGUN TO SPREAD
AS WELL, WITH SOLUTIONS RANGING FROM WEST OF KYOTO TO EAST OF TOKYO.
TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WITHIN FAVORABLE TO MARGINAL CONDITIONS
THROUGH TAU 72 AND SHOULD REACH A PEAK INTENSITY NEAR 80 KNOTS BY
TAU 72. AFTER TAU 72 TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN INTERACTING WITH
LAND AND WILL ENCOUNTER INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND A
BAROCLINIC ZONE EXTENDING ACROSS THE SEA OF JAPAN AND NORTHERN
HONSHU. TS 15W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION NEAR
TAU 96 AS A STRONG MID-LATITUDE TROUGH MOVES IN FROM THE
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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