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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Tuesday August 23 2011):
Now initiating 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 14W (MINA).
14W (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 14W [MINA]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Tue 23 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #002/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 14W (MINA) approaching Tropical Storm threshold as it creeps NNW across the Philippine Sea.
In the coming days, TD 14W may likely have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with another developing cyclone (97W) located west of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines is very minimal to none, it will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the archipelago.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of 14W (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Tue August 23 2011
Location of Center: 15.9º N Lat 127.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 420 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 510 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 557 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 692 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Philippine Sea
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Tue Aug 23
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
14W (MINA) is expected to move slowly towards the North to NNE, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without affecting any land areas. This system will eventually become a Tropical Storm (TS) within the next 12 to 24 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (TUE): Upgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves slowly Northward...about 566 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM AUG 23: 16.1N 127.4E @ 65kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (WED): Gaining more strength as it moves slowly across the Philippine Sea...about 619 ESE of Cauayan, Isabela [8AM AUG 24: 16.5N 127.5E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (WED): Intensifies into a Severe Tropical Storm as it veers NNE-ward...about 617 km East of Ilagan City, Isabela [8PM AUG 24: 17.0N 127.6E @ 95kph].
THURSDAY MORNING: Nearing typhoon threshold while maintaining its slow NNE motion...about 647 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayn [8AM AUG 25: 17.5N 127.8E @ 100kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 14W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some additional strengthening expected within the next 12 to 24 hours.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
FRIDAY MORNING: Almost a typhoon...moving NE slowly [8AM AUG 26: 18.4N 128.3E @ 110kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it starts accelerating ENE away from the Central Philippine Sea [8AM AUG 27: 19.7N 130.0E @ 120kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Maintains its typhoon intensity as it accelerates further ENE. A possible interaction between a developing cyclone west of Guam may take place during this time. [8AM AUG 28: 21.2N 133.2E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
14W's (MINA) circulation has become better organized as it continues to consolidate. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DEVELOPING RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas. However, its Southwesternmost outer bands are currently spreading and affecting the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the developing rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) continues to consolidate over the Western Pacific Ocean, west of the Marianas. The system was located about 202 km NW of Guam, CNMI (14.6N 143.4E)...with maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...almost stationary. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential has increased to MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with possible showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN VISAYAS, PALAWAN, WESTERN MINDANAO, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) TUE 23 AUGUST POSITION: 15.7N 127.4E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 14W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 350 NM
EAST OF MANILA, PHILIPPINES, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS CONVECTION ORGANIZING AND INTENSIFYING AROUND
THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 222346Z SSMIS SERIES
INDICATES THAT THE MAJORITY OF DEEP CONVECTION IS OVER THE WESTERN
SEMICIRCLE, BUT THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE SHOWS WELL ORGANIZED CLOUD
LINES FEEDING INTO THE LLCC. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
WELL-ESTABLISHED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL BETWEEN THE UPPER LEVELS
OF TD 14W AND A TUTT CELL EAST OF THE RYUKYUS, BUT THE TUTT CELL IS
MOVING AWAY FROM THE SYSTEM AND IT LOOKS AS THOUGH THE CHANNEL WILL
CUT OFF SOON. OUTFLOW TO THE OTHER QUADRANTS IS UNIMPEDED BUT
NOTHING SPECIAL. THE 221200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
SHOWS THAT TD 14W EXISTS SOUTH OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS IN A
HIGHLY DIFFLUENT REGION. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS. SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES ARE 31 DEGREES. THE CURRENT INTENSITY
ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
THREE SHIP REPORTS IN THE VICINITY OF THE STORM. TD 14W IS IN A WEAK
STEERING ENVIRONMENT THAT IS PART OF A DEVELOPING MONSOON GYRE. A
MID-LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 5N 140E IS PROVIDING A GENTLE
POLEWARD NUDGE TO THE SYSTEM, BUT THE LACK OF A DOMINANT STEERING
FORCE OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA IS MAKING FOR GENERALLY SLOW AND
ERRATIC MOVEMENT...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
*WARNING: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS CURRENTLY NOT ALIGNED WITH THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE**
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 14W (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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