<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 30 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon TALAS (15W) moving slowly northwestward.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION 2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue August 30 2011
Location of Center: 26.0º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 150 km WSW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 217 km NW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 263 km WSW of Chichi Jima
Distance 4: 1,178 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 1,078 km South of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6:00 PM JST Tue Aug 30
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving towards the NW during the next 24 hours & intensify slightly. A turn back to the north is forecast during the next 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying while maintaining its NW'ly motion...about 371 km WNW of Bonin Island [5PM AUG 31: 27.5N 137.7E @ 130kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Returns to its usual Northward track across the open sea...no change in strength...about 727 km SSW of Tokyo [2PM SEP 01: 29.4N 137.6E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 2 days. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 315 kilometers (170 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
TALAS' (15W) radial circulation continues to improved with the eyewall wrapping closer to the large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
DEVELOPING EYEWALL - affecting & moving into Bonin Island. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Chichi Jima & Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima). Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 110 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 30 AUGUST POSITION: 25.8N 139.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 590 NM SOUTH OF
TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
BROAD, PARTIALLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER FROM WHICH THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING
FROM 45 TO 55 KNOTS. A 300101Z ASCAT PASS PARTIALLY DEPICTS THE
EXPANSIVE WIND RADII. TS 15W IS LOCATED BENEATH AN UPPER LEVEL LOW,
WHICH IS SUPPRESSING CENTRAL CONVECTION DEVELOPMENT. A 30/00Z UPPER
AIR SOUNDING FROM CHICHI JIMA SHOWS SOUTHEASTERLY MID-LEVEL FLOW. TS
15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AND IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE OVER THE NEXT 24
HOURS. AN UPPER LEVEL, MID-LATITUDE TROUGH, CURRENTLY OVER
NORTHEASTERN CHINA, IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN THE STR AND ALLOW TS 15W
TO TURN POLEWARD AROUND TAU 36. TS 15W SHOULD MAKE LANDFALL
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO JUST AFTER TAU 72. IT WILL WEAKEN AS IT TRACKS
OVER MAINLAND JAPAN, BEGIN INTERACTING WITH THE BAROCLINC ZONE, AND
TRANSITION INTO AN EXTRA-TROPICAL LOW BY TAU 120. NUMERICAL MODEL
GUIDANCE IS SPLIT IN THE FORECAST OF THE DEPTH OF THE APPROACHING
MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. BOTH NOGAPS AND UKMO ANALYZE A WEAKER TROUGH
AND THEREFORE, MAINTAIN A STRONGER STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH.
HOWEVER, JGSM, GFDN, GFS, AND ECMWF PREDICT GREATER WEAKENING OF THE
STEERING RIDGE. THIS FORECAST FAVORS THE LATTER SCENARIO WITH A
FASTER POLEWARD TURN. TS 15W WILL SLOWLY INTENSIFY AS IT TRACKS OVER
WARM WATER BUT MAINTAINS AN UPPER LEVEL LOW ALOFT...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved