for Thursday, 25 August 2011 [7:04 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NANMADOL (MINA) becomes a Typhoon as it drifts towards the WNW...threatens the Batanes Group of Islands. Its western outer rainbands spreading across the the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon.
This weekend, Typhoon NANMADOL is expected to have an interaction (Fujiwhara Effect) with the developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be minimal. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Extreme Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 125.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 341 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 384 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 403 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 449 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 532 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 465 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 18 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) forecast outlook has changed, with some bend to the left. Based on this package, the typhoon is now expected move on a slow NNW track, bringing it a little closer to the eastern coast of NE Luzon (Cagayan incl. Batanes Group). This system will continue to gain strength within the next 2 days due to favourable atmospheric environment aloft. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (THU): Gaining strength as it moves NNW slowly...about 395 km East of Casiguran, Aurora [2PM AUG 25: 16.3N 125.8E @ 140kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Reaches Category 2 with no change in its slow, NNW track...about 287 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela [2AM AUG 26: 17.2N 125.2E @ 160kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Nearing Category 3 strength...about 319 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM AUG 26: 18.1N 124.7E @ 175kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Becomes a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it turn to the North...about 305 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM AUG 27: 19.1N 124.4E @ 185kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely reach Category 2 on Friday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains at Category 3 as it veers to the NNE while along the North Philippine Sea, well east of Batanes Islands [2AM AUG 28: 20.6N 124.3E @ 185kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to move NNE slowly...starts interacting with the potential tropical cyclone (97W) outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2AM AUG 29: 21.6N 124.6E @ 185kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: No change in strength & track...threatens Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands. Interaction with the other potential cyclone to the east continues [2AM AUG 30: 22.9N 125.4E @ 185kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation remains healthy with convective rainbands expanding on all quadrants except the northern portion. A cloud-filled eye is now evident on satellite & microwave imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...However, its western & southwesternmost outer rainbands continues to spread across Eastern Coast of Luzon, affecting the coastal areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon & the Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) continues to consolidate west of Northern Marianas, likely to develop into a Tropical Depression this morning or afternoon. The system was located about 617 km NW of Guam, CNMI (17.2N 140.6E)...maximum sustained winds of 40 kph...moving NW @ 11 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains HIGH (95%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 25 AUGUST POSITION: 16.0N 126.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 03
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS A DEEP CONVECTIVE BAND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY WRAPPING
INTO THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 241712Z AMSRE IMAGE
DEPICTS A DEEP CONVECTIVE MICROWAVE EYE. THE POSITION WAS BASED ON
THE AMSRE 37GHZ WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 55 TO 65
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW
INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL AND DIFFLUENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT 24/12Z SHOW DEEP (BUT
WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW INDICATIVE OF THE STR PERSISTING NORTH OF THE
SYSTEM. THE 24/12Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU BETWEEN THE EASTERN STR, SOUTH OF
JAPAN, AND THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE
500MB ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POSITIONED
OVER EASTERN CHINA. TY 14W IS EXPECTED TO BEGIN TO TURN MORE
POLEWARD AS THE STR WEAKENS DUE TO THE APPROACHING UPPER LEVEL
TROUGH AND AS A DEVELOPING SYSTEM (CURRENT TCFA) LOCATED TO THE EAST
INTENSIFIES AND TRACKS NORTHWARD. DURING THE EXTENDED TAUS, THE TWO
SYSTEMS ARE FORECAST TO BEGIN DIRECT CYCLONE INTERACTION (DCI),
WHICH WILL INDUCE A TURN NORTHEASTWARD. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN FAIR
AGREEMENT INITIALLY, EXCEPT FOR UKMO WHICH TRACKS THE SYSTEM
WESTWARD WITH NO INDICATION OF DCI. HOWEVER, AFTER TAU 72, THE MODEL
GUIDANCE SPREADS WITH THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHEASTWARD. TY 14W
IS FORECAST TO INTENSIFY STEADILY DUE TO WARM SEA SURFACE
TEMPERATURES AND FAVORABLE OUTFLOW ALOFT. HOWEVER, SEVERAL INTENSITY
MODELS ARE INDICATING A POSSIBLE RAPID INTENSIFICATION, WHICH IS A
POSSIBLE SCENARIO BECAUSE OF THE FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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