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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 020
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Thu 04 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #038/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) turns WNW closer to Okinawa, just a Category 2 Typhoon...outer rainbands spreading across the Ryukyu & Okinawa Islands. Enhanced SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms shifted to the south (Northern Palawan, Calamian Group, Mindoro, Western & Northern Visayas incl. Romblon)...Metro Manila getting a much needed sunshine & blue skies today.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Thu August 04 2011
Location of Eye: 24.7º N Lat 129.9º E Lon
Distance 1: 277 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 283 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 290 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 577 km East of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 838 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 935 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,099 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 1,450 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 175 kph (95 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 215 kph (115 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 15 kph (08 kts)
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 450 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 952 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Thu Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to maintain its WNW motion w/ a slight decrease in strength within the next 24 hours. Its core shall be passing close, to the SW of Okinawa Island on Friday morning approx 8 to 9 AM Japan Standard Time (00-01 GMT). During the next 48 hours, MUIFA shall re-intensify as it moves into an area of warmer sea surface temperature w/ a higher ocean heat content located offshore of Eastern China - with a track more to the NW. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (THU): Moving out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...about 202 km SE of Naha, Okinawa or 212 km SE of Kadena Air Base [2PM AUG 04: 24.9N 129.1E @ 175kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Weakens slightly as it moves offshore of Southern Okinawa...about 102 km SSE of Naha, Okinawa or 123 km South of Kadena Air Base [2AM AUG 05: 25.3N 127.9E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Moving away from Okinawa towards Eastern China...about 115 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa or 132 km WSW of Kadena Air Base 2PM AUG 05: 25.9N 126.6E @ 165kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Turns NW-ward while to the WNW of Okinawa...about 255 km WNW of Naha, Okinawa [2AM AUG 06: 26.3N 126.8E @ 195kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing close to the southwest of the island...about 116 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 8:00-9:00 AM JST Friday].
METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Making landfall over Jiangsu Province...passing very close to Shanghai [ETA: between 3:00-5:00 PM HKT Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 175 km/hr (95 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some decrease on MUIFA's strength will continue within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Just along the coast of Eastern China...will pass very close to Shanghai...regains Category 3 strength [2AM AUG 07: 29.1N 122.9E @ 185kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while over Jiangsu Province & after passing very close to Shanghai. [2AM AUG 08: 32.4N 120.4E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating over land (China), south of Beijing [2AM AUG 09: 36.3N 118.4E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation not looking good while moving closer to Okinawa. The typhoon is currently showing a large eye surrounded by an intense eyewall convection w/ typhoon-force winds. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas...expected to reach Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands later this afternoon or evening. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 450 mm (very high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN PALAWAN, CALAMIAN GROUP, MINDORO, ROMBLON, NORTHERN & WESTERN VISAYAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) THU 04 AUGUST POSITION: 24.5N 130.5E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 180 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W
STRUGGLING THROUGH AN EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. THE INNER EYE HAS
BECOME CLOUD-FILLED AND THE STORM INTENSITY HAS FLATTENED OUT DURING
THE PAST 12 HOURS, BUT A 031306Z TRMM 85 IMAGE REVEALS THAT DEEP
CONVECTION HAS FORMED OVER MOST OF THE NEW EYE, AND RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY REVEALS COOLING CLOUD TOPS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS SUBSIDENCE OVER THE WESTERN FLANK OF THE SYSTEM, YET
EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW ENHANCED OVER THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE. THE
INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ASSESSMENTS FROM
PGTW AND KNES. TY 11W IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. OVER THE PAST FOUR DAYS, THE ANTICYCLONE AT
THE CENTER OF THE RIDGE HAS RETROGRADED FROM NEAR 40 DEGREES NORTH
AND THE DATELINE TO ITS CURRENT CENTER NEAR 35N 160E. THE
SOUTHWESTWARD MOVEMENT OF THE RIDGE IS FORCING THE STORM ON A WEST-
NORTHWESTWARD TRACK. DYNAMIC AIDS INDICATE THE HIGH WILL CONTINUE TO
BUILD AND RETROGRADE, FORCING THE STORM TOWARDS THE EAST CHINA SEA.
TRACK GUIDANCE HAS BEEN STABLE AND MOVING INTO TIGHTER AGREEMENT.
EACH SUCCESSIVE MODEL RUN HAS ALSO SHOWN AN EQUATORWARD TREND IN
MOST OF THE AIDS, WITH MOST GUIDANCE INCLUDING CONSENSUS, MOVING
TOWARDS ECMWF. THE ONLY MODEL SHOWING A TRACK OVER SOUTHERN OKINAWA
IS NOW GFS, AND THAT TRACK LOOKS TO BE A CASE OF EXCESSIVE DIRECT
CYCLONE INTERACTION WITH A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH APPROACHING THE
YELLOW SEA. INTENSITY GUIDANCE HAS ALSO CONGEALED, AND THERE IS NO
LONGER A DISPARITY BETWEEN STATISTICAL AND DYNAMICAL MODELS.
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS EXPECTED TO STAY BELOW 20 KNOTS THROUGHOUT TY
MUIFA'S ENTIRE TRACK, SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE WILL INCREASE FROM ITS
CURRENT 28 DEGREES TO 29 DEGREES OVER THE EAST CHINA SEA, AND OCEAN
HEAT CONTENT IS TURNING OUT TO BE NOT MUCH OF A FACTOR. THUS, TY 11W
IS EXPECTED TO HAVE A RELATIVELY FLAT INTENSITY TREND UNTIL
LANDFALL, WITH A SLIGHT RISE NEAR TAU 72, WHERE THE WARMEST WATER
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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