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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 004
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) remains far out at sea...intensifying slowly.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Center: 21.2º N Lat 139.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 459 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 734 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 620 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,290 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 425 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North Slowly
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 480 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 850 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving towards the north throughout the forecast period & intensify. This system will remain over open waters during the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon as it moves northward slowly...about 340 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM AUG 27: 22.5N 139.1E @ 130kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify while maintaining its northward track...about 235 km WSW of Iwo To [2PM AUG 28: 23.9N 139.2E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 850 kilometers (460 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength while over the open waters of the Western Pacific...passing well to the WNW of Iwo To [2PM AUG 29: 25.3N 139.2E @ 150kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation continues to improve with convective cloudiness on all quadrants except the northwestern part. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Marianas & Iwo To. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 20.8N 139.4E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 260 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 06 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
(MSI) SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING BEGINNING TO WRAP AROUND THE
NORTHEASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A
251215Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTS 35- TO 40-KNOT WINDS ALONG THE OUTER
SOUTHERN, EASTERN TO NORTHERN PERIPHERIES WITH LOWER 10- TO 15-KNOT
CENTRAL WINDS, INDICATIVE OF A MONSOON DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL
POSITION WAS BASED ON THE BROAD LLCC IN THE MSI IMAGERY AND A
252308Z SSMIS 37GHZ WITH LOW CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS
BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30 TO 45
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS PREVENTING OUTFLOW ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, BUT THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW.
ADDITIONALLY, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHWEST IS BEGINNING TO PROVIDE A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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