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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Tue 02 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #030/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
MUIFA (KABAYAN) remains a Category 3 Typhoon as it moves northward across the Northeast Philippine Sea. This system will continue to slightly enhance the monsoon rains/thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Western & Southern Luzon including Metro Manila.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Tue August 02 2011
Location of Eye: 22.0º N Lat 134.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 820 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,060 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,325 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,275 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,355 km ENE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,365 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,425 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,610 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 600 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to re-intensify slightly & turn NW to WNW-ward within the next 24 to 48 hours. The Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC) which started yesterday is nearing its end, thus re-strengthening is likely within 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (TUE): Regains Category 4 strength as it turns NNW to NW-ward...about 715 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 02: 22.8N 133.6E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Continues to strengthen, turns more to the left (WNW) toward Okinawa-Ryukyus...about 585 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM AUG 03: 23.7N 132.7E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Maintains its strength as it moves closer to Okinawa-Ryukyus...about 445 km SE of Okinawa, Japan 2PM AUG 03: 23.4N 132.7E @ 220kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to lose strength as it moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands...about 295 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM AUG 04: 25.0N 130.2E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3...passing over or very close to Okinawa Island [2AM AUG 05: 26.4N 127.8E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains @ Category 3 as it moves away from Okinawa, turns NW-ward toward the East China Sea [2AM AUG 06: 27.7N 126.1E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2 as it moves across the East China Sea...approaching the coast of Eastern China while moving towards the Yellow Sea [2AM AUG 07: 30.0N 124.7E @ 175kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing very close or directly over the island...about 20 km SSW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 4:00-6:00 AM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intense with organized spiral bands convection on all sides, except for the NW portion. The typhoon's core continues to exhibit a small, cloud-filled eye surrounded by an inner and outer eyewall, which depicts an ongoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER & OUTER EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific), but already spreading & affecting across Iwo To and Bonin Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the OUTER & INNER RAINBANDS...with isolated amounts of up to 600 mm (very high) to the NE of MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Partly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) TUE 02 AUGUST POSITION: 21.5N 134.2E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 440 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE
REGENERATION OF AN EYEWALL STRUCTURE BEGINNING TO TAKE FORM WITH A
EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE HAVING RECENTLY OCCURRED. A 01/1705Z AMSRE
37GHZ IMAGE SHOWS WELL DEFINED MULTIPLE CONCENTRIC BANDING. A
01/1714Z AMSU-B IMAGE REVEALS THAT THERE IS A SLIGHT SOUTHWARD
DISPLACEMENT OF THE UPPER LEVEL CIRCULATION FROM THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER EVIDENT ON THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSRE IMAGE. THE
RECENT UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOW THAT THE LLCC OF TY 11W IS IN AN AREA OF WEAK
(05-10 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WINDSHEAR. HOWEVER, FURTHER TO THE
NORTH LIES STRONG (30-40 KNOTS) NORTHERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
ASSOCIATED WITH TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING FROM A
TRANSITORY MID-LATITUDE EXTRATROPICAL LOW PRESSURE SYSTEM IN
CONJUNCTION WITH STRONG CONFLUENT FLOW ON THE EASTERN SIDE OF A
BUILDING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY BEING
STEERED NORTHWARDS BY DEEP LAYERED RIDGING FROM THE SOUTHEAST. AFTER
TAU 12, TY 11W WILL BEGIN TO BE STEERED NORTHWESTWARDS BY A BUILDING
DEEP LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH AND THIS RIDGE WILL
CONTINUE TO PROVIDE THE STEERING FLOW FOR THE STORM THROUGHOUT THE
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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