for Friday, 26 August 2011 [12:49 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Due to the very slow movement of NANMADOL, the 3-hourly & hourly updates will not be implemented. T2K will continue issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 240 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 180 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #014/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
After undergoing an "Explosive Deepening" phase last night, NANMADOL (MINA) becomes the 3rd Super Typhoon of 2011. Inner rainbands lashing Eastern Isabela & Northern Aurora.
The possible interaction (Fujiwhara Effect) between TS TALAS (15W) located to the NNW of Guam may no longer push through due to its distance from each other. Nevertheless, NANMADOL (MINA) will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing scattered to occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Eye: 17.1º N Lat 123.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 128 km East of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 198 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 202 km East of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 214 km ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 5: 219 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 6: 256 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 393 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 401 km NE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 418 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 240 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 295 kph (160 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 05 kph (03 kts)
Towards: Coastal Cagayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Sat Morning [8AM-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 650 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 926 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 590 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to resume moving NW to NNW during the next 2 days, reaching Category 5 later today. The forecast track now shows the system passing offshore of Cagayan's NE coast tomorrow (Saturday) morning. It shall pass very close to east of the Batanes Group of Islands while taking a northward turn early Sunday morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (FRI): Reaching its peak strength of 260 km/hr (Category 5)...about 96 km East of the Isabela-Cagayan Border [8PM AUG 26: 17.3N 123.3E @ 260kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Weakens to just below-Super Typhoon strength (Category 4) as its circulation interacts with the mountains of NE Luzon or undergoes a possible Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC)...its core passing very near the northeast coast of Cagayan...about 117 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM AUG 27: 18.2N 122.8E @ 230kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Remains a powerful Category 4 system...approaching Batanes...about 105 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [8PM AUG 27: 19.4N 122.5E @ 220kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Turning Northward as it passes very close to the east of Batanes Island Group...about 33 km East of Basco [8AM AUG 28: 20.6N 122.3E @ 220kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Just offshore of Cagayan's NE Coast...about 108 km ENE of Aparri [ETA: between 8:00 AM-2:00 PM Local Time, Tomorrow].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Very close to the east...about 33 km East of Basco [ETA: between 5:00-9:00 AM Local Time, Sunday, August 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have rapidly increased to near 240 km/hr (130 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 4 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue within the day...likely to reach Category 5. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 590 kilometers (320 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY MORNING: Starts recurve slowly NNE-ward in the direction of Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Islands, just to the east of Southern Taiwan [8AM AUG 29: 22.1N 122.4E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to Category 3 while moving more to the NE slowly...approaching the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Island Chain [8AM AUG 30: 23.1N 123.0E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY MORNING: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) as it passes to the south of Ishigakijima...heading towards Okinawa [8AM AUG 31: 23.9N 123.9E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) powerful circulation remains intact...and now shows a distinct and impressive round but slightly irregular eye, measuring 20 km across. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
20-KM EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Eastern Cagayan, Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting portions of Northern & Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 400 to 650 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, & Batanes Group of Islands. Extreme damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
Watch out for a separate page on this system later today.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will experience stormy weather today until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 16.7N 123.9E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 620
NM SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT
02 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY INDICATES THE SYSTEM HAS RAPIDLY INTENSIFIED OVER THE PAST
24 HOURS AND SHOWS A 10 NM EYE WITH SYMMETRIC DEEP CONVECTION. THE
INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATES
RANGING FROM 130 TO 140 KNOTS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS
A POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING
PERIPHERIES. TY 14W HAS SLOWED AND REMAINS QUASI-STATIONARY WHILE
TRACKING BETWEEN COMPETING SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGES TO THE NORTH
AND SOUTH. A 25/12Z UPPER LEVEL SOUNDING INDICATES DEEP (ALTHOUGH
WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW..(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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