Monday, August 29, 2011

TS NANMADOL [MINA] - Update #022

 


for Monday, 29 August 2011 [7:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).


NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]

T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 022

6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 29 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #027/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NANMADOL (MINA) cruising WNW across Taiwan Strait with no change in strength...expected to make landfall over Fujian Province tomorrow. Tropical Storm Conditions has started across Southeastern China.

This storm will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across Western Luzon (from Zambales up to Ilocos Norte), bringing passing occasional rains w/ gusty winds.

Residents and visitors along Taiwan & Southeastern China should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.

CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon August 29 2011
Location of Center: 23.6º N Lat 119.4º E Lon {CWB Radar/SatFix}
Distance 1: 144 km NW of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 2: 166 km SE of Xiamen, China
Distance 3: 228 km WSW of Hualien, Taiwan
Distance 4: 272 km SW of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 276 km ENE of Shantou, China
Distance 6: 278 km South of Fuzhou, China
Distance 7: 437 km NW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 613 km NNW of Laoag City
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Fujian Province, China
CPA [ETA] to Fujian: Tuesday [8AM-5PM HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 23 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM HKT Mon Aug 29

2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to move NW to WNW during the next 24 hours as it approaches the coast of Fujian Province, China. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will turn more to the west and make landfall over Fujian Province near Xiamen City tomorrow (Tuesday). NANMADOL will weaken further prior in making landfall, and rapidly dissipate after making landfall over Southeastern China in 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.

TUESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Weakens slightly as it approaches the coast of Fujian Province...about 116 km ESE of Xiamen City, China [2AM AUG 30: 24.2N 119.2E @ 85kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Continues to lose strength...makes landfall over Fujian Province...about 55 km ENE of Xiamen City [2PM AUG 30: 24.7N 118.6E @ 75kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Dissipating over land...downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) while moving slowly across Fujian Province...about 59 km NNW of Xiamen City [2AM AUG 31: 25.0N 117.9E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Dissipated...just an area of low pressure off Southeastern China...about 121 km WNW of Xiamen City, China [2PM AUG 31: 25.1N 117.1E @ 35kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Weakening of strength is expected before NANMADOL reaches the coast of Fujian Province tonight, with rapid dissipation likely as soon as the storm moves inland Tuesday.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.

NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*

FUJIAN PROVINCE, CHINA:  Landfalling near Xiamen City [ETA: between 8:00 AM to 8:00 PM Tuesday].

*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.

EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation still holding on as it picks-up some moisture while moving over the Taiwan Strait. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Taiwan Strait & Fujian Province. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across The rest of Taiwan, Batanes Group of Islands and Southeastern China. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 300 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON (from Ilocos Norte down to Zambales). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 60 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals

PHILIPPINE STORM WARNING SIGNAL # ONE (1) click to know meaning
In Effect: BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS.

The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.

Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 29 AUGUST POSITION: 23.5N 119.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 125
NM SOUTHWEST OF TAIPEI, TAIWAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY DEPICTS FRAGMENTED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). A 290450Z AMSU 89 GHZ IMAGE
SHOWS CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO A DEFINED LLCC.
THE CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON RADAR IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE.
THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
45 TO 65 KNOTS. TS 14W IS FORECAST TO MAKE LANDFALL BY TAU 24 AND
WILL DISSIPATE BY TAU 48. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN TIGHT AGREEMENT AND
SUPPORTS THIS FORECAST...(
more info)

>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific"
    
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


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RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  

*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.




> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  



> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
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NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at: 
   
http://www.typhoon2000.ph/disclaimer.htm


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