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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 017
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #021/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) weakens slightly as it turns Northward across Luzon Strait. The core is now passing close to the West of the Batanes Group of Islands. Typhoon Conditions continuing across Calayan, Babuyan & Batanes Islands. Inner rainbands spreading across Ilocos Norte, Northern Cagayan, Bashi Channel & the Southern Coast of Taiwan.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & NW Visayas incl. Mindoro & Palawan.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Southeastern China & Okinawa should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Eye: 20.2º N Lat 121.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 60 km WSW of Sabtang Is., Batanes
Distance 2: 72 km WSW of Mahatao, Batanes
Distance 3: 79 km WSW of Basco, Batanes
Distance 4: 91 km SW of Itbayat, Batanes
Distance 5: 101 km NW of Babuyan Island
Distance 6: 102 km NNW of Calayan Island
Distance 7: 204 km NNW of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 234 km NNE of Laoag City
Distance 9: 283 km South of Taitung, Taiwan
Distance 10: 286 km SSE of Kaohsiung, Taiwan
Distance 11: 424 km South of Hualien, Taiwan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 185 kph (100 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 230 kph (125 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Taiwan
CPA [ETA] to Batanes: Now [until 2AM Mon]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 280 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 948 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 36 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 13-18 ft [4-5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sun Aug 28
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to continue moving North slowly throughout the 2-day forecast period. The typhoon may still re-intensify as it tracks along the warm waters of the Bashi Channels later tonight through the evening. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will approach the little island of Itbayat later tonight...and shall be along the shores of Southern Taiwan early tomorrow morning (Monday). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Re-intensifies while passing close to the west of the Batanes Group...about 80 km WSW of Basco [2PM AUG 28: 20.2N 121.2E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Regains Category 4 strength as it moves into the Bashi Channel...about 74 km WNW of Itbayat, Batanes [2AM AUG 29: 20.9N 121.1E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Maintaining its Category 4 strength...approaching Southern Taiwan...about 55 km SSE of Taiwan's Southern Tip [2PM AUG 29: 21.5N 121.1E @ 215kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Bears down the coast of SE Taiwan...weakens to Category 2...about 46 km South of Taitung City, Taiwan [2AM AUG 30: 22.3N 121.1E @ 175kph].
SOUTHERN TAIWAN: Along the shores, near Taitung City [ETA: between 2:00 PM Monday to 5:00 AM Local Time Tuesday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 185 km/hr (100 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some re-intensification can still be expected today. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 260 kilometers (140 nautical miles). NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall over Southeastern Taiwan [2AM AUG 31: 23.4N 121.1E @ 110kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Continues to weaken while traversing the mountains of Central Taiwan [2AM SEP 01: 24.1N 120.9E @ 75kph].
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Re-intensifies as it enters the warmer waters of Taiwan Strait [2AM SEP 02: 24.8N 120.4E @ 95kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation is having a hard time to reintensify after it interacting with the mountains of Northern Cagayan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Just west of the Batanes Group. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting & moving across Batanes & Babuyan Group of Islands. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ilocos Norte, Calayan Island, Apayao & Northern Cagayan. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Northern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 210 to 280 mm (high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Cagayan, Calayan-Babuyan Islands, Ilocos Norte, Balintang & Bashi Channels, the Batanes Group of Islands, & Southern Taiwan. Extensive damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NW VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02; and 100-185 kph for #03). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 19.7N 121.3E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 540 NM SOUTHWEST
OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON BROUGHT ON
SIGNIFICANT WEAKENING OF THE SYSTEM. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS CLOUD TOPS WARMING AND THE EYE FILLING DURING THE PAST
SIX HOURS. THE MOST RECENT IMAGERY, HOWEVER, INDICATES THAT THE
PROCESS HAS REVERSED AND THE SYSTEM IS NOW CONSOLIDATING AND RE-
INTENSIFYING OVER THE LUZON STRAIT. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
NEARLY IDEAL FOR FURTHER DEVELOPMENT, WITH SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES
OF 31 TO 32 DEGREES AND VERTICAL WIND SHEAR BELOW 05 KNOTS. A
271742Z AMSRE IMAGE CONFIRMS THAT THE EYEWALL WAS NEARLY INTACT AS
THE SYSTEM TRACKED OVER THE BUBAYAN ISLANDS. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES THAT THE POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL HAS CUT OFF, BUT
OTHERWISE OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ALL QUADRANTS. RADAR LOOPS FROM
SOUTHERN TAIWAN REVEAL THE OUTERMOST RAINBANDS ARE REACHING THE
SOUTHERN COAST, AND RAIN ASSOCIATED WITH ON-SHORE FLOW IS NOW
BLANKETING THE ENTIRE EAST COAST OF TAIWAN. THE CURRENT INTENSITY OF
100 KNOTS IS BASED ON A PGTW DVORAK ANALYSIS. TY 14W IS TRACKING
ALONG THE SOUTHWEST QUADRANT OF THE MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE
(STR). THE 27/12Z 500 MB ANALYSIS SHOWS THE RIDGE EXTENDING OVER
KYUSHU AND INTO THE EAST CHINA SEA. TY 14W WILL TRACK POLEWARD ALONG
THE WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR. ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS ARE
FAVORABLE FOR RE-INTENSIFICATION DURING THE ROUGHLY 24 HOUR PERIOD
IN WHICH THE STORM CLEARS THE CORROSIVE EFFECTS OF LAND INTERACTION
WITH LUZON AND ENCOUNTERS THE SAME IMPEDIMENTS DURING THE APPROACH
TO TAIWAN. RECENT MODEL GUIDANCE INDICATES THAT THE UPPER-LEVEL
TROUGH CURRENTLY OVER CENTRAL CHINA WILL WEAKEN AND PROPAGATE
NORTHEASTWARD INTO THE EAST SEA AND THE STR WILL REBUILD OVER
EASTERN CHINA, STEERING TY 14W WESTWARD AFTER IT BEACHES ON THE
SHORES OF SOUTHWEST TAIWAN...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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