for Thursday, 25 August 2011 [11:20 PM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 002
8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) moving NW across the open sea with little change of strength
This weekend, TS TALAS is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) located over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Chichi Jima & Japan mainland should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Center: 20.1º N Lat 140.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 537 km SSW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 597 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 717 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 897 km NNW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 5: 532 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 110 kph (60 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Japan Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Thu Aug 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected to move on a slow Northerly track throughout the forecast period with increasing intensity. This system will remain over open waters. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Intensifying over the open sea...tracking North slowly...about 342 km SSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 26: 22.1N 139.7E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY EVENING (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon...about 249 km SW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 27: 23.1N 139.7E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY EVENING: Continue to intensify while over the open waters of the Western Pacific...passing close to the WNW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 28: 25.0N 139.7E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS & WESTERN MICRONESIA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation has started to improve with convective cloudiness on all quadrants except the northern part. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Marianas, Iwo To, Bonin & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS & WESTERN MICRONESIA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) THU 25 AUGUST POSITION: 19.8N 140.1E.
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved