for Friday, 12 August 2011 [6:45 AM PhT]
<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 006
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Fri 12 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 13W (UNNAMED) devoid of any thick-rain cloud convection...tracking Northward...not a threat to any land areas. This cyclone is expected to dissipate over the open sea within the next 12 to 24 hours.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 13W (UNNAMED)
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Fri August 12 2011
Location of Center: 29.1º N Lat 138.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 386 km NW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 423 km NW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 744 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Sea South of Japan
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 50 mm (Med)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 6 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 AM JST Fri Aug 12
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 24 hours)*
13W is expected to resume moving NE across the open waters of the Western Pacific Ocean without affecting any land areas. This system will eventually dissipate into a remnant low in 24 hours. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for this system. 
THIS AFTERNOON (FRI): Dissipating over the open sea...about 634 km South of Tokyo, Japan [2PM AUG 12: 30.0N 139.5E @ 45kph]. TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Dissipated at sea...just a remnant low...about 528 SSE of Tokyo, Japan [2AM AUG 13: 31.3N 141.1E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. 13W is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will dissipate within the next 12 to 24 hours.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
13W's (UNNAMED) circulation no longer carrying any thick-rain cloud convection...just an exposed low-level circulation center with a swirl of low clouds rotating counter-clockwise. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: DISSIPATING RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 50 mm (medium) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) FRI 12 AUGUST POSITION: 28.8N 138.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED IMAGERY (IR) SHOWS A FULLY
EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER WITH THE MOST RECENT CONVECTIVE
FLARE HAVING COMPLETELY COLLAPSED. A 111654Z AND 111707Z AMSU IMAGE
BOTH SHOW THE EXPOSED LLCC, NO DEEP CONVECTION, AND DRY AIR
ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST WRAPPING AROUND THE SOUTHEASTERN PERIPHERY
OF THE SYSTEM. THE INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED
IR AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY
IS BASED ON PGTW AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES OF 25-30 KNOTS.
UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATE THAT
TD 13W IS SOUTH OF A SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AXIS AND CURRENTLY UNDER
MODERATE (10-15 KNOTS) EASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. TD 13W IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING NORTHEASTWARD AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO
INCREASINGLY UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS, SUCH AS
DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST.
BY TAU 24 THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF ECMWF,
WHICH CURVES TD 13W NORTH AT TAU 24 AND NORTHWESTWARD BY TAU 36.
THIS CURVE MAY BE DUE TO ECMWF LOSING TRACK OF THE LLCC AS THE
SYSTEM BEGINS TO DISSIPATE. THIS FORECAST TRACK IS SIMILAR TO THE
PREVIOUS FORECAST AND IS TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS
AFTER TAU 12 TO OFFSET THE UNLIKELY ECMWF SCENARIO...(more info)
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 12-18HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved
No comments:
Post a Comment