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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 018
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 03 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #035/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) maintaining its intensity as it bends more to the WNW, aiming dangerously towards Okinawa. This system will continue to pull the SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms across Western & Southwestern Luzon including Metro Manila, Mindoro & Western Bicol.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed August 03 2011
Location of Eye: 24.3º N Lat 132.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 508 km SE of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 509 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 514 km SE of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 820 km East of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 1,084 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 1,139 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 1,278 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 8: 1,593 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 37 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Wed Aug 03
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to maintain its WNW movement w/ some fluctuations on its strength. Its core shall be passing very close, to the SW of Okinawa Island by Friday morning approx 6 to 8 AM Japan Standard Time (21-23 GMT). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (WED): Weakened slightly as it moves toward Okinawa...about 381 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Japan [8PM AUG 03: 24.7N 131.1E @ 195kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (THU): Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa w/ increased wind speeds...about 226 km SE of Naha, Okinawa [8AM AUG 04: 25.1N 129.6E @ 205kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (THU): Maintains its Category 3 strength...just along the SE coast of Okinawa...about 107 km SSE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa 8PM AUG 04: 25.4N 128.3E @ 205kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Passing very close to the SW of Okinawa Island, weakens slightly...about 51 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa [8AM AUG 05: 26.1N 127.2E @ 195kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing very close to the southwest of the island...about 70 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 6:00-7:00 AM JST Friday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations on MUIFA's strength is likely within the next 24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2 as it moves across the East China Sea, farther away from Okinawa...turns NW towards Eastern China [8AM AUG 06: 27.9N 124.8E @ 175kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Bearing down the coast of Eastern China, approaching Shanghai @ Category 2 strength [8AM AUG 07: 30.1N 122.8E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it moves onshore of Jiangsu Province, just to the north of Shanghai [8AM AUG 08: 32.9N 121.0E @ 100kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation maintaining an intense, organized spiral band-convection on all quadrants. The typhoon is currently showing a 54-km in diameter irregular eye. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE IRREGULAR EYE (54-km diameter) - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Iwo To, Bonin & other nearby small islands...slowly approaching the Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Bonin-Iwo To Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 300 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & CALAMIAN-LUBANG ISLANDS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 03 AUGUST POSITION: 24.2N 132.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 295 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT
07 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS TY 11W HAS MAINTAINED A HIGHLY SYMMETRICAL PROFILE
THAT HAS EXPANDED TO OVER 500 NM. ADDITIONALLY, A SECONDARY EYEWALL
APPEARS TO BE FORMING AROUND A TIGHTLY-WRAPPED 20-NM DIAMETER EYE,
AS DEPICTED ON A 022055Z SSMIS MICROWAVE IMAGE. THE INITIAL POSITION
AND INTENSITY ARE BASED ON DVORAK EYE FIXES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD WITH INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 102-115 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS DIRECTLY UNDER A RIDGE AXIS
EXTENDING FROM AN ANTICYCLONE TO THE NORTHWEST. ALTHOUGH THE
ANTICYCLONE IS CAUSING SOME SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWEST
PERIPHERY, THIS IS OVERSHADOWED BY EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW, AS
EVIDENT ON ANIMATED WATER VAPOR SATELLITE IMAGERY. TY 11W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE ANCHORED JUST SOUTHEAST OF HONSHU, JAPAN.
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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