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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 130 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 029
5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Sun 07 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #050/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) maintained its track & strength towards the Yellow Sea.
MUIFA will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) - bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along Western Philippines particularly Mindoro, Calamian, Pangasinan, Zambales, Batangas, & Bataan.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Sun August 07 2011
Location of Eye: 31.3º N Lat 124.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 304 km East of Shanghai, China
Distance 2: 308 km SW of Cheju Is., S. Korea
Distance 3: 335 km ENE of Ningbo, China
Distance 4: 618 km NW of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 665 km SE of Qingdao, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Yellow Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 963 km (520 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 38 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM HKT Sun Aug 07
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving NNW into the Yellow Sea & pass very close along the easternmost handle of the Shandong Peninsula within the next 24 hours. After 24 hours, this system will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm (TS) as it makes landfall along Liaoning Province by late Monday afternoon or early evening. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SUN): Barely a typhoon as it barrels into the Yellow Sea...about 279 km West of Cheju Island, South Korea [2PM AUG 07: 33.3N 123.6E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (MON): Downgraded into a TS...approaching the easternmost portion of the Shandong Peninsula...about 256 km ESE of Qingdao, China [2AM AUG 08: 35.7N 123.1E @ 110kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Moving away from Shandong Peninsula...approaching the coast of Liaoning Province, China...about 274 km WSW of Pyongyang, North Korea 2PM AUG 08: 38.5N 122.7E @ 95kph].
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Makes landfall over Liaoning Province...just barely a TS as it recurves NE to ENE...about 327 km NW of Pyongyang, North Korea [2AM AUG 09: 41.3N 123.4E @ 65kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will be downgraded into a TS within the next 12-24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 963 kilometers (520 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated over land...just a remnant low along Heilongjiang Province...accelerating ENE [2AM AUG 10: 45.3N 129.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay especially along the western quadrant. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DECAYING EYE - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (East China Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Cheju Island. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces, Naje, Okinawa & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Kyushu, Shandong Peninsula, North & South Korea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Cheju Island, coastal areas of Zhejiang & Jiangsu Provinces, Naje, Okinawa & Ryukyus Islands, East China & Yellow Sea, Kyushu, Shandong Peninsula, North & South Korea...with isolated amounts of up to 220 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Cheju Island. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Eastern China, Western Japan, South Korea and Shandong Peninsula. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SUN 07 AUGUST POSITION: 30.5N 124.4E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 190 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF CHEJU ISLAND, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED NORTH-
NORTHWESTWARD AT 12 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED
INFRARED IMAGERY SHOWS TIGHTLY CURVED CONVECTIVE BANDING
SURROUNDING THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). THE MOST
FORMATIVE OF THIS BANDING HAS WRAPPED INTO THE EASTERN SEMICIRCLE
DURING THE PAST SEVERAL HOURS. A 06/1721Z AMSR-E 89 GHZ IMAGE SHOWS
THAT THE DEEPEST CONVECTION IS CONTAINED TO THE EAST OF THE LLCC
WHILE THERE IS A LACK OF DEEP CONVECTION TO THE WEST. THE INITIAL
POSITION IS BASED ON THE 36 GHZ IMAGE OF THE AFOREMENTIONED AMSR-E
PASS WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK
ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, RANGING FROM 55-65 KNOTS. UPPER
LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS AND RECENT ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
INDICATE THAT TY 11W IS IN A WEAK (10-15 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS) ENVIRONMENT DUE TO ITS POSITION BETWEEN A RIDGE AXIS TO THE
NORTH AND SOUTH. RADIAL OUTFLOW REMAINS EXCELLENT ALONG WITH AN
EASTWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE EAST. TY 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
HONSHU, JAPAN. THIS SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO MAINTAIN INTENSITY DURING
THE NEXT 12 HOURS AS ALONG-TRACK SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES (SST)
REMAIN FAVORABLE AND OUTFLOW REMAINS GOOD IN ADVANCE OF AN
APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH. AFTER TAU 24, INTENSITY WILL
GRADUALLY WEAKEN AS TY 11W ENTERS SST VALUES OF BELOW 26 DEGREES
CELSIUS. INCREASING VWS AND CONTINUED WEAKENING WILL OCCUR DURING
TAU 36 AS AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS EXPECTED TO WEAKEN
THE STEERING SUBTROPICAL RIDGE AND CAUSE TY 11W TO GRADUALLY TURN TO
THE NORTH AND THEN NORTHEAST. BY TAU 72 TY MUIFA IS FORECAST TO
DISSIPATE OVER NORTHEASTERN CHINA. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS
IN GOOD AGREEMENT THROUGH THE FORECAST PERIOD. THEREFORE, THIS
FORECAST LIES CLOSE TO CONSENSUS THROUGH TAU 36 BUT THEN LIES
SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT AND FASTER THAN CONSENSUS DURING TAU 48-72 AS
THE SYSTEM ROUNDS THE NORTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE STR AND ENTERS
THE UPPER LEVEL WESTERLY FLOW...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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