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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Due to the very slow movement of NANMADOL, the 3-hourly & hourly updates will not be implemented. T2K will continue issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 250 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 185 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
SUPER TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 012
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #015/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Extremely Dangerous Super Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) reaches Category 5 threshold...inching closer to the East Coast of Cagayan. Inner rainbands now bringing heavy squalls along Cagayan, Isabela & Northern Aurora.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Eye: 17.5º N Lat 123.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 91 km ENE of Palanan Bay, Isabela
Distance 2: 193 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 163 km ENE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 170 km East of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 183 km ENE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 6: 197 km SE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 434 km North of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 8: 400 km NNE of Metro Manila
Distance 9: 360 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 250 kph (130 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 305 kph (165 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Coastal Cagayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Sat Morning [4-9AM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 922 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 5
Size (in Diameter): 665 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 30 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to continue moving NNW slowly during the next 24 hours, before taking a more Northerly track between 36 to 48 hours. Its intensity will still increase tonight until tomorrow, reaching a peak of 270 km/hr. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will pass well off the NE coast of Cagayan tomorrow (Saturday) morning...and pass near Batanes Islands Sunday early morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SAT): Continues to intensify as it moves NNW, closer to the coast of Eastern Cagayan...about 139 km East of Aparri [2AM AUG 27: 18.2N 123.0E @ 260kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SAT): Attains its peak strength as it maintains its NNW movement, passing well to the east of the Balintang Channel...about 105 km East of Calayan Island [2PM AUG 27: 19.4N 122.5E @ 270kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Starts to weaken slowly...turns northward as it passes close to the east of the Batanes Island Group...about 33 km ESE of Basco [2AM AUG 28: 20.4N 122.3E @ 260kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Slowly moving away from the Batanes as it weakens further...about 115 km NNE of Basco [2PM AUG 28: 21.5N 122.3E @ 250kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Just offshore of Cagayan's NE Coast...about 110 km ENE of Aparri [ETA: between 4:00-9:00 AM Local Time, Tomorrow].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Very close to the east...about 33 km East of Basco [ETA: between 1:00-8:00 AM Local Time, Sunday, Aug 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 250 km/hr (135 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 5 Super Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening likely until tomorrow. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 270 kilometers (145 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 665 kilometers (360 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Passing well to the east of Southern Taiwan...weakens to a Category 4 Typhoon as it turns slowly NNE towards the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Islands [2PM AUG 29: 22.5N 122.6E @ 220kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3...moving NE slowly...approaching the Yaeyama-Ishigakijima Island Chain [2PM AUG 30: 23.5N 123.2E @ 205kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: About to exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...passing close to the east of Ishigakijima...aiming for Okinawa [2PM AUG 31: 24.6N 124.9E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) powerful circulation remains intact & compact...continues to show an impressive round but slightly irregular eye, measuring 31 km across. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
31-KM EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Eastern & Northern Cagayan, Northern Aurora & Eastern Isabela. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands tonight until early tomorrow.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the whole of Northern Luzon, including the mid-portion of Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 320 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft [>5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Northern Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, & Batanes Group of Islands. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will experience stormy weather tonight & tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03 and in excess of 185 kph for #04). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 17.2N 123.6E.
*SUPER TYPHOON (STY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 605 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS MAINTAINED HIGHLY SYMMETRIC
DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDS WRAPPED TIGHTLY INTO A 17 NM DIAMETER EYE.
THE INITIAL INTENSITY OF 135 KNOTS IS BASED ON A UNIFIED PGTW, KNES,
AND RJTD DVORAK ESTIMATE. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY DEPICTS A
POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH
CELL TO THE NORTH AND EXCELLENT DIFFLUENCE ALONG THE REMAINING
PERIPHERIES. STY 14W HAS BEGUN TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD ALONG THE
NORTHWEST PERIPHERY OF A NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
IN RESPONSE TO AN APPROACHING MID-LATITUDE TROUGH TO THE NORTHWEST.
THIS TROUGH HAS WEAKENED THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE TO THE NORTH THAT WAS
PREVIOUSLY STEERING THE CYLONE WESTWARD. STY 14W SHOULD CONTINUE TO
INTENSIFY OVER THE NEXT 24 HOURS AND THEN WEAKEN GRADUALLY AS IT
GAINS LATITUDE INTO SLIGHTLY HIGHER VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN OVERALL GOOD AGREEMENT UP TO TAU 72 WHERE THE
MODELS FAN OUT WITH WBAR AS THE LEFTMOST AND GFS THE RIGHTMOST
OUTLIERS. THIS IS AN INDICATION OF POSSIBLE WEAK STEERING AFTER THE
SYSTEM CRESTS THE NORTHWEST EXTENSION OF THE STEERING NER. THIS
TRACK FORECAST IS IN LINE WITH CONSENSUS TOWARDS A NORTHEAST
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on STY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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