for Friday, 05 August 2011 [12:24 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 05 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #043/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) now on its closest approach to Okinawa...large eye moving just offshore of Naha...Northern Eyewall lashing the island...Typhoon Conditions continuing.
MUIFA has re-started enhancing the Southwest Monsoon (Habagat) bringing occasional rains, gusty winds & rough seas along a wide-swath of Western Philippines from Western Mindanao, Western Visayas, Palawan, & up to Western Luzon including Metro Manila, Puerto Galera, Mindoro & Boracay.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri August 05 2011
Location of Eye: 25.5º N Lat 127.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 78 km South of Naha, Okinawa
Distance 2: 102 km South of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa
Distance 3: 113 km South of Okinawa City, Okinawa
Distance 4: 360 km ENE of Ishigakijima, Japan
Distance 5: 606 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 6: 798 km NE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 7: 774 km SE of Ningbo, China
Distance 8: 877 km SE of Shanghai, China
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 160 kph (85 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 195 kph (105 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: Offshore of Okinawa
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 290 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 959 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Fri Aug 04
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: WESTERN PHILIPPINES (Western Luzon down to Western Mindanao). Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to turn NW'ly as it passes close to the southwestern coast of Okinawa this afternoon. After 24 hours, it will regain some intensity as it moves into an area of slightly warmer seas w/ favorable ocean heat content. The core shall pass near the eastern seaboard of Jiangsu Province, just east of Shanghai on Sunday morning (Aug 07). Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
THIS EVENING (FRI): Starts to move away from Okinawa...about 102 km WSW of Naha, Okinawa or 118 km WSW of Kadena Air Base [8PM AUG 05: 26.0N 126.7E @ 160kph]. TOMORROW MORNING (SAT): Turns more NW-ward across the East China Sea, farther away from Okinawa...about 228 km WNW of Okinawa City [8AM AUG 06: 27.1N 125.6E @ 160kph]. TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Intensified slightly as it accelerates NW across the warm waters of the East China Sea...threatens Eastern China particularly Zhejiang & Jiangsu Province including Metropolitan Shanghai...about 330 km ESE of Ningbo, China 8PM AUG 06: 28.5N 124.5E @ 165kph]. SUNDAY MORNING: Nears Category 3 status...passing near the coast of Jiangsu Province...about 224 km ESE of Shanghai, China [8AM AUG 07: 30.3N 123.5E @ 175kph]. OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing to the west-southwest of the island...about 109 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 3:00-5:00 PM Japan Time, Friday]. METROPOLITAN SHANGHAI: Just along the NE coast of Zhejiang Province, China...passing close, about 145 km ENE of Shanghai [ETA: between 3:00-5:00 PM Shanghai Time, Sunday].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 160 km/hr (85 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. A little change in strength can be expected within the next 12-24 hours. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 405 kilometers (220 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across. MONDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1 as it moves across the Yellow Sea...approaching the coast of Shandong Province [8AM AUG 08: 34.9N 121.8E @ 130kph]. TUESDAY MORNING: Downgraded to a Tropical Storm while moving NNW to Northward...approaching the coast of Liaoning Province, China - hundreds of kilometers to the east of Beijing. [8AM AUG 09: 39.7N 121.0E @ 95kph]. WEDNESDAY MORNING: Dissipated into an area of low pressure while over land, along Jilin-Heilongjiang boundary, China. [8AM AUG 10: 44.8N 124.2E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains circular and compact w/ thick raincloud convection on all quadrants. The typhoon continues to maintain a large ragged, cloud-filled eye about 55 km across. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: EYE - over water (near the coast of Southern Okinawa)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - spreading & affecting the whole island of Okinawa. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the rest of the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Naje & Ishigakijima Islands & some portions of the northernmost Philippine Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Okinawa & the Ryukyus...with isolated amounts of up to 290 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN) especially along the SW portion of the circulation. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 05 AUGUST POSITION: 25.2N 127.9E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 70 NM SOUTH
OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWESTWARD AT 04
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
THAT TY 11W IS MAINTAINING ORGANIZATION AND INTENSITY. TY 11W HAS A
30NM RAGGED AND CLOUD FILLED EYE. THE EYEWALL IS BETWEEN THE STORM
CENTER AND OKINAWA. THE SLOW AND STEADY TRACK SOUTH OF OKINAWA IS
PROLONGING SEVERE GALE TO STORM FORCE WINDS OVER OKINAWA, BUT WINDS
ARE VEERING STEADILY AS THE SYSTEM TRACKS SOUTH OF THE ISLAND. A
042153Z 37GHZ SSMIS IMAGE REVEALS EXTENSIVE LOW LEVEL BANDING AND
NEAR-PERFECT SYMMETRY AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT RADIAL OUTFLOW AND A
NEWLY DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL FROM THE NORTHERN
PERIMETER OF THE UPPER CIRCULATION TOWARDS KYUSHU. THE CURRENT
INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF SURFACE REPORTS
FROM OKINAWA AND SUBJECTIVE DVORAK ESTIMATES FROM PGTW, KNES, AND
RJTD. TY 11W CONTINUES TO STEER ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN FLANK OF
THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHICH IS ANCHORED BY A 5190M 500 MB HEIGHT
CENTER OVER TOKYO. THE RIDGE IS STILL RETROGRADING SOUTHWEST. 500 MB
HEIGHTS NOW EXCEED 5880M AS FAR SOUTHWEST AS KYUSHU...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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