for Wednesday, 24 August 2011 [12:24 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 80 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 85 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Wed 24 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm NANMADOL (MINA) continues gaining strength over the Philippine Sea as it jogs towards the NNW. Westernmost outer rainbands spreading across the coastal areas of Eastern Luzon & Bicol Region.
This weekend, TS NANMADOL may likely have a Direct Cyclone Interaction (aka. Fujiwhara Effect) with a developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be very minimal to none. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional showers across the archipelago.
Residents and visitors along Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Wed August 24 2011
Location of Center: 16.3º N Lat 126.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 403 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 481 km NE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 3: 491 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 4: 630 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 95 kph (50 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 120 kph (65 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 07 kph (04 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 985 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 15 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Wed Aug 24
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to move slowly towards the North, across the open waters of the Philippine Sea without directly affecting any land areas. This system will continue to gain strength within the next 2 days. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (WED): Approaching Typhoon status as it moves very slowly Northward...about 638 km East of Cauayan, Isabela [8PM AUG 24: 16.9N 127.7E @ 100kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (THU): Becomes a Category 1 Typhoon as it maintains its northerly track...about 647 km East of Tuguegarao City, Cagayan [8AM AUG 25: 17.5N 127.8E @ 120kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (THU): Continues to intensify as it moves slowly northward into the North Philippine Sea...about 656 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM AUG 25: 18.0N 127.9E @ 130kph].
FRIDAY MORNING: Moving slowly slightly to the NNE...still intensifying over the North Philippine Sea...about 664 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [8AM AUG 26: 18.5N 128.0E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 95 km/hr (50 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will be expected within the next 12 to 24 hours...and is likely to become a Typhoon on Thursday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) across.
SATURDAY MORNING: Approaching Category 2 strength while moving slowly NNE to NE [8AM AUG 27: 20.1N 128.3E @ 150kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Upgraded to Category 2...moving NE-ward away from the Philippine Sea [8AM AUG 28: 21.4N 129.5E @ 160kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 2 strength. A possible interaction between a developing cyclone (97W) NW of Guam may have take place during this time. [8AM AUG 29: 23.4N 131.7E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation improving with increased outer spiral bands along the western & southern quadrants. A possible eye maybe developing beneath its Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Philippine Sea)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (95-117 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-94 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas. However, its western & southwesternmost outer rainbands are spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon & Bicol Region. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 510 mm (very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) continues to consolidate and is likely to become a Tropical Depression later today or tomorrow. The system was located about 455 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (16.9N 142.6E)...maximum sustained winds of 35 kph...moving NNW slowly. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains HIGH (90%). To view the latest satellite image on this disturbance kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) WED 24 AUGUST POSITION: 16.4N 127.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 600
NM SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 03 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES THAT CONVECTION IS STEADILY DEEPENING AND CONSOLIDATING
AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). DESPITE THE
AVAILABILITY OF VISUAL IMAGERY, POSITION CONFIDENCE IS LOWER THAN
NORMAL DUE TO A DISPARITY BETWEEN MICROWAVE AND SATELLITE IMAGERY. A
RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE SCAN ALSO SHOWS INTENSIFICATION OF THE MID-
LEVEL WARM ANOMALY OVER THE LLCC. TS 14W EXISTS WITHIN A VIGOROUS
MONSOON TROUGH, WHICH EXTENDS OVER THE PHILIPPINE SEA AND ONWARDS TO
THE NORTHERN MARIANAS. THE 231200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS AN UPPER LEVEL ANTICYCLONE CENTERED NEAR 17N 128E,
PLACING TS NANMADOL UNDER A REGION OF HIGHLY DIFFLUENT FLOW AND LOW
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR. WATER VAPOR ANIMATION SHOWS IMPROVING OUTFLOW,
ESPECIALLY OVER THE WESTERN SEMICIRCLE. A WEAK POLAR OUTFLOW CHANNEL
INTO A STATIONARY TUTT CELL TO THE EAST OF THE RYUKYUS PERSISTS,
ALTHOUGH THE CHANNEL HAS NARROWED SIGNIFICANTLY IN THE LAST 24
HOURS. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ASSESSMENT IS BASED ON THE OBSERVED
INTENSIFICATION FACTORED WITH DVORAK ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS FROM
RJTD, PGTW AND RJTD. TS 14W CONTINUES A SLOW POLEWARD DRIFT IN A
VERY WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT. THE PREVAILING SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER
THE WESTERN PACIFIC IS THE EARLY STAGE OF A MONSOON GYRE. TYPICAL OF
A MONSOON GYRE ARE MULTIPLE VORTICES WITHIN THE BROAD CIRCULATION,
AND THERE ARE CURRENTLY TWO VORTICES TO THE EAST AND NORTHEAST OF TS
14W. THE PRIMARY CIRCULATION OF INTEREST IS THE SUBJECT OF A
TROPICAL CYCLONE FORMATION ALERT WEST-NORTHWEST OF GUAM. THERE IS
CURRENTLY 900 NM OF SEPARATION BETWEEN THE TWO SYSTEMS AND THEY ARE
NOT INFLUENCING EACH OTHER YET, HOWEVER THE TWO SYSTEMS ARE CLOSING
ON EACH OTHER AT APPROXIMATELY 05 KNOTS. THE TRADITIONAL SEPARATION
AT WHICH TWO DEVELOPED CYCLONES BEGIN TO INTERACT IS APPROXIMATELY
700 NM...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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