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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 033
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Mon 08 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #055/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm MUIFA (KABAYAN) just to the east of Shandong Peninsula...approaching the Chinese-North Korean Border...landfall expected tonight.
Residents and visitors along Northeastern China & North Korea should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Mon August 08 2011
Location of Center: 38.1º N Lat 124.0º E Lon
Distance 1: 186 km WSW of Pyongyang, N.Korea
Distance 2: 225 km SSW of Chinese-North Korean Border
Distance 3: 278 km WNW of Seoul, S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 130 kph (70 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 28 kph (15 kts)
Towards: Chinese-North Korean Border
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 110 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 982 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 795 km (430 nm) / Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0.0-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM HKT Mon Aug 08
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 36 hours)*
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to continue moving Northward across the Yellow Sea...will make landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border tonight. This storm will start recurving towards the NE and rapidly dissipate along the rugged terrain of NE China tomorrow, Tuesday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (MON): Making landfall along the Chinese-North Korean Border...weakens rapidly...about 177 km NW of Pyongyang, North Korea [8PM AUG 08: 40.1N 124.3E @ 85kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (TUE): Downgraded to a Tropical Depression (TD) as it rapidly dissipate over land (Liaoning Province, China)...about 389 North of Pyongyang, North Korea [8AM AUG 09: 42.5N 125.8E @ 55kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (TUE): Dissipated over land while moving ENE across the Chinese provinces of Jilin & Heilongjiang...about 244 km WNW of Vladivostok, Russia 8PM AUG 09: 44.1N 129.2E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will continue losing strength within the next 12 to 24 hours. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 445 kilometers (240 nautical miles) from the center. MUIFA is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 795 kilometers (430 nautical miles) across.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation continues to decay as it moves across the cooler waters of the Yellow Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the eastern shores of Shandong Peninsula, North Yellow Sea, & the Western parts of North Korea. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Liaoning, Jilin, & Heilongjiang Provinces of China, the rest of the North & South Korea, & the South Yellow Sea. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 75 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 110 mm (high) along areas near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with possible showers will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) MON 08 AUGUST POSITION: 37.5N 123.9E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 160 NM
WEST-NORTHWEST OF KUNSAN AIR BASE, SOUTH KOREA, HAS TRACKED
NORTHWARD AT 15 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED
MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A PARTLY EXPOSED LOW
LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW CONVECTION FLARING OVER
THE LLCC. A 07/2253Z 91H GHZ SSMIS IMAGE SHOWS EXTREMELY FRAGMENTED
SHALLOW CONVECTION WITHIN THE INNER CURVILINEAR RAINBANDS AND A MORE
VIGOROUS RAINBAND WELL TO THE NORTHWEST. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE AFOREMENTIONED MSI AND MICROWAVE IMAGE WITH GOOD
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY REMAINS HIGHER THAN REPORTING
AGENCY DVORAK ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 30-45 KNOTS DUE TO KNOWN
INTENSITY ERRORS WITH SYSTEMS THAT DISPLAY THESE CHARACTERISTICS.
THE LLCC CONTINUES TO ENCOMPASS THE ENTIRE YELLOW SEA AND MAINTAINS
ITS HEALTHY STRUCTURE EVEN THOUGH THERE IS A LACK OF CENTRAL DEEP
CONVECTION. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS AND WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOW TS 11W
IN A WEAK SHEAR ENVIRONMENT WITH EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW INTACT INTO
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGHING TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CONTINUED
POLEWARD VENTING FROM A CONNECTION WITH THE MID-LATITUDE UPPER LEVEL
WESTERLIES. TS 11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING NORTHWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) CENTERED OVER
SOUTHERN HONSHU...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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