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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
12:00 PM PhT (04:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) still gaining strength while drifting westward across the Philippine Sea...threatens Isabela-Cagayan-Batanes Area. Its western outer rainbands spreading across the Eastern & Central Luzon incl. Metro Manila & Bicol Region.
This weekend, Typhoon NANMADOL is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with the developing cyclone (97W) located to the NW of Guam. If this scenario happens, effects to the Philippines will be minimal. It will just induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 12:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Eye: 16.3º N Lat 125.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 323 km NNE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 342 km East of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 375 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 4: 409 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 488 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: West @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: North Philippine Sea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 465 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 8:00 AM PhT Thu Aug 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) forecast outlook remains the same, the typhoon is expected to move on a slow NNW track, bringing it a little closer to the east coast of NE Luzon (Cagayan, Isabela incl. Batanes Group). This system will continue to gain strength within the next 2 days due to very favorable atmospheric environment aloft. NANMADOL may likely reach Category 3 status by Friday & Category 4 on Saturday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS EVENING (THU): Strengthens to Category 2 as it moves NNW slowly, well to the east of Northern Aurora...about 323 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora [8PM AUG 25: 16.6N 125.1E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW MORNING (FRI): Becomes a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it moves NNW slowly, well to the east of Southern Cagayan...about 318 km East of Tuguegarao City [8AM AUG 26: 17.5N 124.7E @ 195kph].
TOMORROW EVENING (FRI): Strengthens to Category 4 with no change on its track...about 285 km East of Aparri, Cagayan [8PM AUG 26: 18.5N 124.4E @ 215kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its Category 4 status, starts turning Northward...about 255 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [8AM AUG 27: 19.5N 124.2E @ 215kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NANMADOL (MINA) will continue moving WNW to NW-ward and pass very close to the NE coast of Cagayan on Friday evening or Saturday...making a close pass-by east of Batanes on Saturday evening or Sunday. This scenario may likely happen if the small High Pressure Steering Ridge north of the typhoon maintains its strength.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely reach Category 2 later today. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 465 kilometers (250 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY MORNING: Starts recurving slowly towards the NNE while over the North Philippine Sea...remains at Category 4 [8AM AUG 28: 21.0N 124.3E @ 215kph].
MONDAY MORNING: Veering towards the NE...starts interacting with TS TALAS (97W), located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [8AM AUG 29: 22.2N 124.9E @ 215kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3 as it starts threatening Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands. Interaction with TS TALAS (97W) off south of Japan continues [8AM AUG 30: 23.3N 125.84E @ 205kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation remains strong with convective rainbands expanding on all quadrants except the northern & eastern quadrants. A cloud-filled eye remains on satellite & microwave imageries. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the coastal areas of Cagayan, Isabela, Aurora, Northern Quezon, Bicol Region & now moving across portions of Central & Southern Luzon incl. Metro Manila. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 250 to 510 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Tropical Storm TALAS (97W) upgraded from TD has started to move towards the Southern Japan Watch out for a separate page on this system later today. To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) THU 25 AUGUST POSITION: 16.0N 125.6E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 633 NM
SOUTH OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED WESTWARD AT 05 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY
INDICATES IMPROVED ORGANIZATION WITH A CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST AREA
OVER THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). ADDITIONALLY, A
24/2121Z SSMIS 91GHZ IMAGE SHOWS A MICROWAVE EYE WITH A STRONG DEEP
CONVECTIVE BAND TO THE SOUTH. THE POSITION WAS BASED ON THE SSMIS
IMAGE WITH HIGH CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW,
KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM 65 TO 77
KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS INDICATES A POLEWARD OUTFLOW
CHANNEL INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CELL AND DIFFLUENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW. TY 14W CONTINUES TO SLOWLY TRACK WESTWARD ALONG
A WEAK MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) POSITIONED TO THE NORTH.
UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM THE RYUKYUS (NAZE) AT 24/1200Z SHOW DEEP
(BUT WEAK) EASTERLY FLOW, INDICATIVE OF THE STR PERSISTING NORTH OF
THE SYSTEM. THE 24/1200Z 500MB ANALYSIS INDICATES A WEAK STEERING
ENVIRONMENT SOUTHWEST OF KYUSHU BETWEEN THE EASTERN STR SOUTH OF
JAPAN AND THE WESTERN STR POSITIONED OVER SOUTHEAST CHINA. THE 500MB
ANALYSIS ALSO INDICATES A MID-LATITUDE TROUGH IS POSITIONED OVER
EASTERN CHINA...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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