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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 016
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 02 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Major Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) has started to turn towards the NW with little change in strength...now a serious threat to Okinawa. This system will continue to enhance the SW Monsoon rains w/ squalls & thunderstorms across Western Visayas, Luzon including Metro Manila, Southern Tagalog Provinces, Mindoro, Northern & Western Bicol & the Calamian Group.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Tue August 02 2011
Location of Eye: 23.1º N Lat 133.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 715 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 990 km ESE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,255 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,250 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,340 km NE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,360 km NE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,445 km NE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,635 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (NE of center): 520 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 35 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, NORTHERN & WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to re-intensify & turn sharply towards the WNW within the next 24 to 48 hours and shall pass very close or directly over Okinawa Island within 72 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (WED): Regains Category 4 strength turns WNW, aiming for Okinawa...about 625 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM AUG 03: 23.7N 133.2E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (WED): Maintains its strength and track towards Okinawa...about 485 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 03: 24.2N 131.9E @ 215kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Still at Category 4 threshold...moving closer to Okinawa...about 340 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa 2AM AUG 04: 24.7N 130.6E @ 215kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Moves out of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...approaching Okinawa...about 215 km SE of Kadena Air Base, Okinawa [2PM AUG 04: 25.1N 129.4E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 110 kilometers (60 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 3...passing very close, west of Okinawa Island [2PM AUG 05: 26.5N 127.3E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains Category 3 strength...moving away from Okinawa, turns NW'ly toward across the East China Sea...threatens the coast of Eastern China including Shanghai [2PM AUG 06: 28.4N 125.6E @ 195kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to Category 2...moving close to the coast of Eastern China...turns NNW-ward [2PM AUG 07: 31.0N 124.1E @ 175kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing very close to the south of the island...about 35 km SW of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 11:00 AM-12:00 PM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intense with organized spiral band-convection on all sides. The typhoon's core maintains a newly-formed cloud-filled, ragged eye. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED, RAGGED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting Iwo To, Bonin & other nearby small islands...expected to arrive over Okinawa & Ryukyu Islands sometime tomorrow, Wednesday. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the outer & inner rainbands, affecting Bonin-Iwo To Islands...with isolated amounts of up to 520 mm (very high) to the NE & near MUIFA's (KABAYAN's) center. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, NORTHERN & WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, NW VISAYAS & LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, NORTHERN & WESTERN BICOL, MINDORO, & LUBANG ISLAND. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 02 AUGUST POSITION: 22.7N 134.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 410 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 06
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH SLIGHT WEST OF NORTH
MOVEMENT DURING THE PAST FEW HOURS. A 02/0430Z AMSU-B 89 GHZ IMAGE
ALSO SHOWS A WELL DEFINED EYE WITH CONCENTRIC BANDING. RECENT WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES TY 11W HAS EXCELLENT EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW AS
WELL AS GOOD POLEWARD OUTFLOW. THE SYSTEM IS ALSO BENEFITTING FROM
OUTFLOW ASSOCIATED WITH A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH TO THE
NORTHEAST. 02/00Z UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS SHOWS THAT TY 11W
IS CURRENTLY IN A REGION OF WEAK (5-10 KNOTS) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
(VWS). VWS IS EXPECTED TO REMAIN WEAK AS 11W APPROACHES AN UPPER
LEVEL ANTICYCLONE AND ASSOCIATED RIDGE AXIS TO THE NORTHWEST OF
OKINAWA. TY 11W HAS BEEN UNDER THE STEERING INFLUENCE OF A DEEP
LAYER RIDGE TO THE EAST FOR THE PAST SEVERAL DAYS. HOWEVER, RECENT
SATELLITE IMAGERY INDICATES THE STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH HAS
BEGUN TO INFLUENCE TY 11W. DURING THE NEXT 12 HOURS THIS DEEP
LAYERED RIDGE IS EXPECTED TO STEER 11W MORE WESTERLY. THIS RIDGE
WILL CONTINUE TO STEER 11W WESTERLY TO WEST-NORTHWESTERLY THROUGH
TAU 48. AFTER TAU 72, AN APPROACHING TROUGH FROM CHINA WILL WEAKEN
THE WESTERN EXTENT OF THIS RIDGE, AND TY 11W WILL LIKELY TAKE ON A
MORE NORTHERLY MOTION. MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN POOR AGREEMENT IN LATER
TAUS, WITH EGRR AND ECMWF MAINTAINING A STRONG STEERING RIDGE AND
KEEPING TY 11W'S TRACK MORE WESTWARD WHILE GFS AND GFDN FAVOR A MORE
NORTHERLY TRACK IN ANTICIPATION OF A STRONGER MID-LATITUDE TROUGH
APPROACHING FROM THE WEST. THIS FORECAST IS CLOSE TO CONSENSUS AND
IS SIMILAR TO THE PREVIOUS FORECAST...more info)
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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