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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Fri 26 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) continuing moving north across the open waters of the Western Pacific...no change on its wind velocity.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Fri August 26 2011
Location of Center: 22.2º N Lat 139.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 348 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 754 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 505 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,268 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 453 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 510 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 850 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Fri Aug 26
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (15W) is expected to continue moving towards the north throughout the forecast period & intensify. This system will remain over open waters during the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EVENING (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon as it moves northward slowly...about 210 km WSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 27: 23.6N 139.7E @ 140kph].
SUNDAY EVENING: Continues to intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 193 km WNW of Iwo To [8PM AUG 28: 25.0N 139.4E @ 150kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) are near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 295 kilometers (160 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 850 kilometers (460 nautical miles) across.
MONDAY EVENING: Upgraded to Category 2...continues to move towards the North [8PM AUG 29: 26.7N 139.0E @ 160kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation continues to improve with convective cloudiness on all quadrants except the northwestern & western portions. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) FRI 26 AUGUST POSITION: 22.1N 139.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 185 NM
SOUTH-SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD
AT 08 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE
IMAGERY SHOWS DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS FURTHER CONSOLIDATED AND
EXPANDED INTO THE NORTHERN QUADRANT OF THE STORM. A 261200Z ASCAT
PASS DEPICTS WIDE SWATHS OF 35- TO 40-KNOT UNFLAGGED WIND BARBS
ALONG THE NORTHERN TO EASTERN AND ALONG THE SOUTHERN PERIPHERIES,
WITH WEAKER WINDS TOWARDS THE CENTER, CHARACTERISTIC OF A MONSOON
DEPRESSION. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION
AND ENCLOSED IN A NOTCH FEATURE ON A 261023Z 37HZ SSMIS MICROWAVE
IMAGE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY WAS BASED ON PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD
DVORAK ESTIMATES. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS UNDER
A RIDGE AXIS IN AN AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS).
A WATER VAPOR SATELLITE LOOP SHOWS A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) IS CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALONG THE NORTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY, HOWEVER, A TUTT CELL TO THE NORTHEAST IS ENHANCING
POLEWARD OUTFLOW. ADDITIONALLY, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS AN EXCELLENT
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL, GENERATED BY THE RIDGE AXIS OVERHEAD.
TS 15W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHEASTERN EXTENSION OF A
NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) TO THE SOUTH...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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