for Thursday, 25 August 2011 [3:42 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The Tropical Depression which was lingering WNW of Guam has strengthened to Tropical Storm TALAS (15W)...accelerating NNW in the direction of Japan. TALAS is a filipino word for sharpness.
This weekend, TS TALAS is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) located over the Philippine Sea, east of Luzon.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Chichi Jima & Japan mainland should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Center: 19.4º N Lat 140.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 603 km South of Iwo To
Distance 2: 510 km WNW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 790 km South of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 792 km NW of Guam, CNMI
Distance 5: 608 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 110 kph (60 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Iwo To-Japan Area
Minimum Central Pressure: 996 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 500 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Thu Aug 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
TALAS (97W) is expected to move on a slow NNW to Northerly track throughout the forecast with increasing intensity. This system will remain over open waters. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Intensifying over the open sea...tracking NNW slowly...about 337 km SSW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM AUG 26: 21.8N 140.8E @ 100kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON (SAT): Upgraded to a Typhoon...about 200 km SW of Iwo To [2PM AUG 27: 23.2N 140.4E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) have increased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Typhoon on Saturday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 150 kilometers (80 nautical miles) from the center. NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 500 kilometers (270 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Continue to intensify while over the open waters of the Western Pacific...passing west of Iwo To [2PM AUG 28: 25.0N 140.0E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS & WESTERN MICRONESIA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
TALAS' (15W) circulation has started to improve with convective cloudiness on all quadrants except the northern part. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-85 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Marianas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE MARIANAS & WESTERN MICRONESIA. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 25 AUGUST POSITION: 19.2N 140.7E.
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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