<<<Typhoon2000.com Mobile >>>
Get the latest SMS Storm Alerts!
For more details: Text T2K HELP to
2800 (Globe/TM) | 216 (Smart/TNT) | 2288 (Sun)
*Only P2.50 (Smart/Globe) / P2.00 (Sun) per msg received.
Click here on how to use this service (in PDF file)
Powered by: Synermaxx Corporation
Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 95 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 011
8:00 PM PhT (12:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) remains almost stationary SW of Iwo To.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 8:00 PM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Center: 22.9º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 273 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 779 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 424 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,257 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Almost Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 320 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 31 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 PM JST Sun Aug 28
TALAS (15W) is expected to move north to north-northwest slowly within the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EVENING (MON): Nearing Typhoon status while moving north slowly...about 225 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8PM AUG 29: 23.5N 139.6E @ 110kph].
TUESDAY EVENING: Upgraded to a Typhoon...about 233 km WSW of Bonin Island [8PM AUG 30: 25.8N 138.8E @ 130kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon on Monday night or Tuesday morning. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY EVENING: Maintains its strength...turns NNW [8PM AUG 31: 26.9N 138.2E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large with little change in its structure. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 PM (12 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 23.3N 140.0E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 745 NM SOUTH
OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 02 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND A 281117Z
METOP-A IMAGE INDICATE A SLOWLY CONSOLIDATING LOW-LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC) WITH DEEP CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING FROM THE
SOUTHWEST QUADRANT INTO THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT. A 281117Z PARTIAL
ASCAT IMAGE DEPICTS A STRONGER, MORE TIGHTLY-WRAPPED WIND FIELD WITH
NUMEROUS 45 KNOT WIND VECTORS AROUND THE CENTER. THE CURRENT POSITION
IS BASED ON THE RECENT ASCAT IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE. THE
CURRENT INTENSITY IS ASSESSED SLIGHTLY HIGHER THAN THE DVORAK
ESTIMATES OF 45 KNOTS...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
:: Kindly view our site's disclaimer at:
Copyright © 2011 Typhoon2000.com All Rights Reserved