for Saturday, 27 August 2011 [7:30 AM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday August 26 2011):
Due to the very slow movement of NANMADOL, the 3-hourly & hourly updates will not be implemented. T2K will continue issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on this powerful howler.
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 220 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 190 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 200 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 195 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 014
7:00 AM PhT (23:00 GMT) Sat 27 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #017/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The core of Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) now along the eastern shores of Northern Cagayan...eye no longer visible as the system rapidly weakened from Super Typhoon intensity. Western Eyewall blasting Northern Cagayan with very powerful winds & heavy rains...Typhoon Conditions prevailing across the whole of Cagayan Province. Inner rainbands continues bringing heavy squalls along Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, & Apayao.
This howler will continue to enhance the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing occasional showers, rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms especially along the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 7:00 AM PhT Sat August 27 2011
Location of Eye: 18.1º N Lat 122.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 81 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 2: 93 km NE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 3: 119 km NNE of Ilagan City
Distance 4: 153 km NNE of Cauayan, Isabela
Distance 5: 164 km SSE of Calayan Island
Distance 6: 190 km East of Laoag City
Distance 7: 270 km SSE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 8: 269 km NE of Baguio City
Distance 9: 417 km NNE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 220 kph (120 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 270 kph (145 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 09 kph (05 kts)
Towards: Northern Cagayan-Batanes Area
CPA [ETA] to Cagayan: Now [until-2PM PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 500 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 933 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 4
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 34 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: >18 ft [>5.5 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 AM PhT Sat Aug 27
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to turn NW to NNW slowly during the next 24 hours, before taking a more Northerly track between 36 to 48 hours. Its intensity may re-intensify a little bit as it enters the warm waters of the Balintang Channel. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will exit Northern Cagayan later this morning...and traverse the eastern portion of the Balintang Channel, passing to the west of Batanes tomorrow afternoon (Sunday). NANMADOL shall be near the east coast of Southern Taiwan early Monday morning. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
THIS AFTERNOON (SAT): Moving into Northern coast of Cagayan...about 31 km NE of Aparri [2PM AUG 27: 18.6N 121.9E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (SUN): Maintains its Category 4 strength as it traverses the Balintang Channel...approaching the Batanes Group...about 100 km SW of Basco [2AM AUG 28: 19.8N 121.4E @ 220kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (SUN): Weakens slightly as it turns Northward across the Bashi Channel...about 84 km WNW of Basco [2PM AUG 28: 20.6N 121.2E @ 215kph].
MONDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 3...passing near the southern coast of Taiwan...about 121 km SE of Kaohsiung City, Taiwan [2AM AUG 29: 21.9N 121.2E @ 205kph].
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Traversing the area...[ETA: Ongoing until 2:00 PM Local Time, Today].
BATANES GROUP OF ISLANDS: Just west of Basco [ETA: between 8:00 AM-5:00 PM Local Time, Sunday, Aug 28].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 220 km/hr (120 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 4 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations in its strength can be expected. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles). NANMADOL is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 740 kilometers (400 nautical miles) across.
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 2...traversing the shores of Eastern Taiwan while moving NNE slowly [2AM AUG 30: 23.2N 121.5E @ 165kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Weakens to Category 1...maintains its slow NNE motion...passing over Hualien City, Taiwan [2AM AUG 31: 24.2N 121.8E @ 150kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Barely a Typhoon as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR)...just along the NE Coast of Taiwan...heading into the East China Sea [2AM SEP 01: 25.1N 122.4E @ 120kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation has weakened considerably from 250 kph to just 220 kph. The core is just along the eastern shores of Northern Cagayan with its eye filling in. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - along the east coast of Northern Cagayan Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
WESTERN EYEWALL - affecting & moving across portions of Northern Cagayan. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the rest of Cagayan, Isabela, Kalinga, & Apayao. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Rest of Northern & Central Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 300 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 320 to 500 mm (high to very high) along areas near the center (eyewall) of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible >18 ft [>5.5 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Isabela, Cagayan, Calayan Is., Ilocos Norte, Balintang Channel & the Batanes Group of Islands. Catastrophic damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region, Quezon Provinces, & the rest of Extreme Northern Luzon. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
NANMADOL's (MINA) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN & SOUTHERN LUZON incl. METRO MANILA, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 55 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today (with winds not exceeding 100 kph for #02 and more than 100 kph for #03 and in excess of 185 kph for #04). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph today. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 AM (18 GMT) SAT 27 AUGUST POSITION: 18.0N 122.7E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 300 NM WEST-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 07
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY
SHOWS THAT ALTHOUGH LAND INTERACTION WITH LUZON IS ERODING THE
WESTERN SEMICIRCLE OF THE SYSTEM, THE SYSTEM MAINTAINS A 17 NM EYE
WITH NO INDICATIONS OF FILLING. A 261755Z AMSRE IMAGE REVEALS THAT
TY 14W MAINTAINS A THICK, CONCENTRIC EYEWALL. AGENCY DVORAK
INTENSITY ASSESSMENTS ALSO REMAIN HIGH. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY
SHOWS DUAL OUTFLOW CHANNELS, WITH THE POLEWARD CHANNEL VENTING INTO
A TUTT CELL NORTHEAST OF TAIWAN. TY 14W IS BEING NUDGED POLEWARD BY
WEAK ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE. THE
ANTICYCLONE EXISTS AT THE WESTERN END OF THE RIDGE. TY 14W HAS
PEAKED IN INTENSITY AND WILL BEGIN AN OVERALL DOWNTREND. IN THE
SHORT TERM, HOWEVER, THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE OUTFLOW CONDITIONS WILL
ALLOW FOR SOME MILD RE-INTENSIFICATION AS THE SYSTEM CLEARS LUZON.
BY TAU 48, IMPEDIMENTS DUE TO LAND INTERACTION WITH TAIWAN AND A
POSSIBLE EYEWALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE WILL BRING ABOUT A STEADY
WEAKENING TREND. IN THE MID TO LONG RANGE, THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
IS EXPECTED TO BUILD AND THRUST OVER THE SOUTHERN RYUKUS, KEEPING
THE SYSTEM ON A POLEWARD TRACK. THE JTWC TRACK FORECAST IS CLOSE TO
CONSENSUS AND THE JGSM MODEL...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*GREEN LIGHT: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW HAS BEEN FIXED WITH JUST A FEW ADJUSTMENTS NEEDED.
TO VIEW CORRECT POSITION, SEE THE ABOVE STILL-IMAGE.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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