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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 11 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on 13W (UNNAMED).
13W (UNNAMED) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 55 km/hr
TROPICAL DEPRESSION 13W [UNNAMED]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 11 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #006/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression 13W (UNNAMED) heading towards the ENE across the open sea of the Western Pacific.
Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of 13W (UNNAMED)
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu August 11 2011
Location of Center: 27.7º N Lat 137.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 380 km WNW of Bonin Island
Distance 2: 461 km WNW of Chichi Jima
Distance 3: 916 km SSW of Tokyo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: ENE @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Sea South of Japan
06-12hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): --- km (--- nm) / N/A
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 8 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Thu Aug 11
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)*
13W is expected to track NE to ENE across the Western Pacific Ocean without affecting any land areas. This system will eventually dissipate into a remnant low while moving across unfavorable atmospheric conditions. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Starts to weaken while moving NE-ward...about 332 km NW of Bonin Island [2AM AUG 12: 28.4N 138.4E @ 45kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Maintained its strength and track...about 385 NNW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 12: 29.8N 139.8E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipated into a low pressure area...about 434 km North of Chichi Jima [2AM AUG 13: 30.9N 141.8E @ 35kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. 13W is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will maintain TD treshold within the next 12 to 24 hours before dissipating.
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
13W's (UNNAMED) circulation not looking good as its mid-upper level cloud convection was separated from the low-level cloud convection due to increasing upper-level winds (aka. Vertical Wind Shear). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
6-12HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of up to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of 13W. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 11 AUGUST POSITION: 27.4N 137.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 13W, LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EAST-NORTHEASTWARD AT 10
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE
IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH A SMALL AREA OF WEAKENING CONVECTION DISPLACED TO THE
WEST. AMSU-B MICROWAVE SATELLITE IMAGES FROM 11/0425Z AND 11/0428
ALSO INDICATE CONVECTION HAS WEAKENED WITH DRY, SUBSIDENT AIR
CONTINUING TO WRAP INTO THE WESTERN AND SOUTHERN HALVES OF THE
SYSTEM. A 10/2124Z WINDSAT PASS SHOWS 30-KNOT FLAGGED WIND BARBS
NEAR THE LLCC WITH 25-KNOT UNFLAGGED BARBS OFF TO THE SOUTHEAST OF
THE LLCC. CURRENT POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVEMENTIONED
SCATTEROMETRY, MSI, AND MICROWAVE IMAGERY WITH FAIR CONFIDENCE.
CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD RANGING FROM 25 TO 35 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS SHOWS TD 13W IS LOCATED SOUTHWEST OF AN ANTICYCLONE IN A
REGION OF MODERATE (20 KNOTS) NORTHEASTERLY VERTICAL WIND SHEAR.
ANIMATED WATER VAPOR IMAGERY INDICATES OUTFLOW INTO A FILLING
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC (TUTT) CELL WEST OF KYUSHU HAS DECREASED
SLIGHTLY. TD 13W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE NORTHWEST PERIPHERY
OF A LOW TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) AXIS. THIS SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING EAST-NORTHEASTWARD TO NORTHEASTWARD
AND SLOWLY WEAKEN DUE TO UNFAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL CONDITIONS SUCH
AS DECREASING OCEAN HEAT CONTENT, INCREASING VERTICAL WIND SHEAR,
AND DRY AIR ENTRAINMENT FROM THE WEST. BY TAU 36 THE SYSTEM IS
EXPECTED TO DISSIPATE OVER WATER. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE IS IN
GOOD AGREEMENT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF WBAR AS A LEFT OUTLIER. THIS
FORECAST TRACK IS SHIFTED SLIGHTLY EASTWARD FROM THE PREVIOUS
FORECAST DUE TO INITIAL EAST-NORTHEASTWARD MOTION AND IS TO THE
RIGHT OF THE MODEL CONSENSUS TO OFFSET WBAR...(more info)
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 6-12HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD 13W (UNNAMED)...go visit our website @:
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