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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday July 29 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on MUIFA (KABAYAN).
MUIFA (KABAYAN) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 205 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 170 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 175 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON MUIFA [KABAYAN/11W/1109]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 013
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Mon 01 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #028/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon MUIFA (KABAYAN) weakens to Category 3 as it tracks Northward across the North Philippine Sea. This system will continue to enhance the monsoon rains across Western Visayas, Western & Southern Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the Southern Islands of Japan, Taiwan & Eastern China should closely monitor the progress of MUIFA (KABAYAN).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Mon August 01 2011
Location of Eye: 20.5º N Lat 134.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 925 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 2: 1,110 km SE of Ishigakijima
Distance 3: 1,375 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,260 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,325 km ENE of Calayan Is., Cagayan
Distance 6: 1,320 km ENE of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 7: 1,355 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 8: 1,525 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 205 kph (110 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 250 kph (135 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (SW of center): 350 mm (VHigh)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 941 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 3
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) / Very Large
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 42 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 9-12 ft [2.7-3.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Mon Aug 01
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow. Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
MUIFA (KABAYAN) is expected to re-intensify slightly & turn NNW to NW-ward within the next 24 to 48 hours. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (TUE): Re-intensifies to Category 4 strength while moving northward across the North Philippine Sea...about 1,260 km ENE of Basco, Batanes [2AM AUG 02: 21.2N 134.1E @ 215kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (TUE): Intensifies slightly as it turns NNW toward Okinawa-Ryukyus...about 740 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 02: 22.3N 133.5E @ 220kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it turns NW-ward...about 600 km SE of Okinawa, Japan 2AM AUG 03: 23.4N 132.7E @ 220kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Starts to lose strength as it bends more WNW-ward, closer to Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands...about 470 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM AUG 03: 24.2N 131.7E @ 215kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 205 km/hr (110 knots) with higher gusts. MUIFA (KABAYAN) is a Category 3 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). MUIFA remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles) across.
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Maintaining its Category 4 strength as it approaches Okinawa-Ryukyu Islands...exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM AUG 04: 25.5N 129.5E @ 215kph].
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Weakens to a Category 3 typhoon as it passes directly over Okinawa Island [2PM AUG 05: 26.8N 127.7E @ 205kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to weaken as it moves away from Okinawa...heading towards the East China Sea [2PM AUG 06: 28.6N 126.4E @ 185kph].
OKINAWA ISLAND: Passing directly over the island...about 15 km NE of Kadena Air Base [ETA: between 11:00 AM-12:00 PM JST Friday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) circulation remains intense with organized spiral bands convection on all sides, except for the NW portion. The typhoon's core continues to exhibit a small, cloud-filled eye surrounded by an inner and outer eyewall, which depicts an ongoing Eyewall Replacement Cycle (ERC). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) can be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER & OUTER EYEWALL - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) can be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 250 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along the OUTER & INNER RAINBANDS...with isolated amounts of up to 350 mm (high) near the center of MUIFA (KABAYAN). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Currently issuing separate updates on Tropical Disturbance 97W (LPA) [LANDO]. Click this link for more info.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)* MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
MUIFA's (KABAYAN) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Cloudy skies with occasional showers, rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected along the following affected areas: CALAMIAN GROUP, VISAYAS & SOUTHWESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, MINDORO, MARINDUQUE, & BICOL REGION. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 45 kph) will blow.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) MON 01 AUGUST POSITION: 19.7N 134.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 11W (MUIFA), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 525 NM SOUTHEAST OF
KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT 09 KNOTS
OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
TY 11W NO LONGER HAS AN EYE AND THE CONVECTIVE EYE WALL HAS ERODED
ON THE NORTHERN SIDE. A 312306Z SSMIS 91H MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS AN
OUTER CONVECTIVE RING SURROUNDING AN INNER HALF RING ADJACENT TO A
SUBSIDENT AREA. THIS INDICATES TY 11W IS UNDERGOING AN EYE WALL
REPLACEMENT CYCLE, WHICH HAS CAUSED TEMPORARY WEAKENING OF THE
SYSTEM OVER THE PAST 12 HOURS. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON
PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD DVORAK CURRENT INTENSITY ESTIMATES RANGING FROM
100 TO 115 KNOTS. THE INITIAL POSITION WAS BASED ON TIGHTLY CURVED
BANDING IN MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY. UPPER LEVEL ANALYSIS
INDICATES A STRONG POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL TO THE NORTHEAST, GOOD
EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW, AND OUTFLOW INTO A TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC
TROUGH (TUTT) CELL TO THE NORTHWEST. AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH IS
LIMITING CONVECTION ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY OF THE SYSTEM. TY
11W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING IN A WEAK STEERING ENVIRONMENT BETWEEN TWO
DEEP LAYER RIDGES CENTERED TO THE SOUTHEAST AND CENTERED OVER
EASTERN CHINA. TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO TRACK MORE POLEWARD WITHIN THE
NEXT 12 HOURS. AS A STEERING RIDGE TO THE NORTH BUILDS IN, TY 11W
SHOULD BEGIN TO TURN NORTHWESTWARD TOWARD OKINAWA, JAPAN. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE IS SPREAD IN THE TIMING OF THE TURN NORTHWESTWARD.
GFS AND GFDN ARE THE EASTERN OUTLIERS AND TAKE A WIDER TURN. THIS
FORECAST FAVORS A FASTER TURN NORTHWESTWARD AND HEDGES TO THE LEFT
OF MODEL CONSENSUS. TY MUIFA IS LIKELY IN A TEMPORARY STATE OF
WEAKENING DURING AN EYE WALL REPLACEMENT CYCLE. ONCE THE NEW EYE
WALL FULLY STRENGTHENS, TY 11W IS EXPECTED TO RE-INTENSIFY OVER THE
NEXT 36 HOURS. ADDITIONALLY, THE UPPER LEVEL TROUGH CURRENTLY TO THE
NORTH WILL TRANSIT NORTHWESTWARD AND ALLOW DEEP CONVECTION TO
DEVELOP ALONG THE NORTHERN PERIPHERY. AFTER TAU 48, OCEAN HEAT
CONTENT SHOULD DROP SIGNIFICANTLY AND CAUSE TY 11W TO SLOWLY
>> MUIFA, meaning: Plum blossom. Name contributed by: Macao, China.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY MUIFA (KABAYAN)...go visit our website @:
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