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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 95 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
8:00 AM PhT (00:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) still stationary to the southwest of Iwo To, far out at sea.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 8:00 AM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 772 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 435 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,261 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 300 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 970 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 9:00 AM JST Sun Aug 28
TALAS (15W) is expected resume moving northward slowly within the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW MORNING (MON): Upgraded to a Typhoon while moving northward slowly...about 232 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [8AM AUG 29: 23.4N 139.6E @ 120kph].
TUESDAY MORNING: Continues to slowly intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 193 km West of Iwo To [8PM AUG 29: 24.6N 139.4E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS is likely to intensify for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon on Monday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 970 kilometers (525 nautical miles) across.
WEDNESDAY MORNING: Still intensifying...turns NNW...passing well to the WNW of Bonin Island [8AM AUG 31: 26.7N 138.6E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large with little change in its structure. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 22.9N 139.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 140NM
SOUTHWEST OF IWO TO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER
THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED INFRARED SATELLITE IMAGERY AND THE LAST
24 HOURS OF MICROWAVE IMAGERY SHOW THE SYSTEM TRENDING FROM AN
EXPANSIVE, LOOSELY ORGANIZED CIRCULATION WITH A RELATIVELY OPEN
CENTER INTO A MORE TIGHTLY ORGANIZED, CONCENTRIC STORM. SYSTEM
INTENSITY HAS HELD STEADY DURING THIS CONSOLIDATION PERIOD. THE
BROAD LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER AND SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF
THE STORM ARE THE RESULT OF COMPLEX AND WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS.
THE 271200Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS REVEALS AN
ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE 28TH LATITUDE,
WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE
EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM. TS 15W IS
EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO, UNDERNEATH A NARROW AND DIFFUSE
TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH (TUTT). ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY SHOWS THE TUTT FILLING AND GENERAL IMPROVEMENT IN OUTFLOW
THAT IS CONDUCIVE TO SLOW INTENSIFICATION. CURRENT ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28 DEGREES.
ALTHOUGH THE WEAK STEERING PATTERN IS RESULTING IN DISPARITIES IN
THE MODEL GUIDANCE, THERE EXISTS AN OVERALL QUALITATIVE AGREEMENT ON
A SLOW NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD TRACK AND MILD INTENSIFICATION OVER THE
NEXT 72 HOURS. THE ANTICYCLONE ON THE POLEWARD SIDE IS EXPECTED TO
RETROGRADE TO THE WEST OF KYUSHU, LEAVING A NARROW WEAKNESS IN THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE. UNCERTAINTY INCREASES IN THE EXTENDED RANGE, AS A
JET MAX CURRENTLY BLASTING OVER MANCHURIA IS EXPECTED TO INDUCE A
MAJOR ALTERATION TO THE PATTERN, WITH AN OMEGA BLOCK FORMING ALONG
THE 155TH MERIDIAN. TS 15W WILL BE FORCED POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN
FLANK OF THE RIDGE. THE PRECISE AXIS OF THE RIDGE WILL BE THE
DETERMINING FACTOR IN HOW FAR WESTWARD, AND HOW CLOSE TO MAINLAND
JAPAN, TS 15W TRACKS...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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