for Sunday, 28 August 2011 [4:20 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 85 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Sun 28 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) barely moving over open waters.
Residents and visitors along Iwo To & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (Day 3)* EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Sunny to mostly cloudy skies with a possible chance of passing showers or squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: NORTHERN MARIANAS. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 50 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Sun August 28 2011
Location of Center: 22.8º N Lat 139.6º E Lon
Distance 1: 282 km SW of Iwo To
Distance 2: 772 km NW of Agrihan Is., CNMI
Distance 3: 435 km SSW of Bonin Island
Distance 4: 1,261 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 5: 471 km East of P.A.R.
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 100 kph (55 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: Almost Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 980 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 1,065 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 28 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0-3 ft [0-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Sun Aug 28
TALAS (15W) is expected to move north to north-northwest slowly within the next 24 to 48 hours & intensify. It will remain over open waters throughout the forecast period. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system. 
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (MON): Upgraded to a Typhoon while moving north slowly...about 233 km SW of Iwo To (formerly Iwo Jima) [2PM AUG 29: 23.5N 139.5E @ 120kph]. TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to intensify while passing west of Iwo To...about 212 km West of Iwo To [2PM AUG 30: 24.8N 139.2E @ 140kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 100 km/hr (55 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. It is likely to intensify for the next 2 days...becoming a Typhoon on Monday. Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles) from the center. TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,065 kilometers (575 nautical miles) across. WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its strength...turns NNW...passing well to the WNW of Bonin Island [2PM AUG 31: 26.9N 138.2E @ 140kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TALAS' (15W) circulation remains very large with little change in its structure. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting the Northernmost Mariana Islands, Iwo To, Bonin, & Chichi Jima. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 28 AUGUST POSITION: 22.9N 139.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 750 NM
SOUTH OF TOKYO, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED EASTWARD AT 01 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS
CONVECTION CONTINUING TO TIGHTEN AROUND THE LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION
CENTER (LLCC). THE CONVECTION IS NOT PARTICULARLY DEEP, AS REVEALED
IN A 272243Z SSMIS IMAGE, BUT THE LOWER FREQUENCY IMAGE DOES SHOW
THAT THE CONVECTIVE BANDING HAS NOW COMPLETELY ENCIRCLED THE LLCC.
DVORAK ESTIMATES HAVE REMAINED STEADY AT 45 KNOTS, BUT THE OBSERVED
CONSOLIDATION INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS BEGINNING TO INTENSIFY SLOWLY.
SURFACE REPORTS AND A 280003Z ASCAT IMAGE SHOW THAT GALE FORCE WINDS
EXTEND OUTWARD FROM THE LLCC NEARLY TO IWO TO. THE BROAD LLCC AND
SLOW AND ERRATIC MOTION OF THE STORM ARE A RESULT OF WEAK AND
COMPLEX WEAK UPPER LEVEL DYNAMICS. UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE ANALYSIS
REVEALS AN ANTICYCLONE DIRECTLY NORTH OF THE SYSTEM ALONG THE 28TH
LATITUDE, WHICH IS PART OF THE SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, WHILE THE NEAR
EQUATORIAL RIDGE EXTENDS ALONG THE EQUATORWARD SIDE OF THE STORM. TS
15W IS EFFECTIVELY TRAPPED BETWEEN THE TWO RIDGES, BENEATH A NARROW
AND DIFFUSE TROPICAL UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH. RECENT ANIMATED
WATER VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXPANDING RADIAL OUTFLOW. ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS ARE FAVORABLE FOR DEVELOPMENT, WITH VERTICAL WIND SHEAR
BELOW 10 KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES NEAR 28
DEGREES...(more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
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RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
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For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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