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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday August 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NANMADOL (MINA).
NANMADOL (MINA) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 125 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NANMADOL [MINA/14W/1111]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 009
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 25 August 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #011/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NANMADOL (MINA) nearing Category 2 status as it maintains its slow WNW motion...threat to Isabela-Cagayan-Batanes Area increases. Its western outer rainbands spreading across the Eastern & Northern Luzon.
This weekend, Typhoon NANMADOL is likely to interact (Fujiwhara Effect) with TS TALAS (15W) located to the NNW of Guam. If this scenario happens, it will continue to induce or pull the Southwest Monsoonal Flow across the Philippines, bringing scattered to occasional rains, squalls w/ thunderstorms across the western sections of Luzon & Visayas.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon, Taiwan, Okinawa & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of NANMADOL (MINA).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu August 25 2011
Location of Eye: 16.5º N Lat 124.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 279 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 2: 327 km North of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 342 km ESE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 4: 360 km NNE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 440 km NE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 150 kph (80 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 185 kph (100 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 13 kph (07 kts)
Towards: Cagayan-Batanes Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 400 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 963 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 555 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 22 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2:00 PM PhT Thu Aug 25
FORECAST OUTLOOK ANALYSIS (up to 2 days)* EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
NANMADOL (MINA) is expected to turn NNW within the next 24 hours before heading North slowly across the North Philippine Sea. This system will continue to strengthen within the next 2 days due to excellent atmospheric conditions aloft. NANMADOL may likely reach Category 3 status by Friday & Category 4 on Saturday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
TOMORROW EARLY MORNING (FRI): Strengthens to Category 2 as it moves NNW slowly, well to the east of Eastern Isabela...about 235 km East of Palanan Bay [2AM AUG 26: 17.1N 124.7E @ 165kph].
TOMORROW AFTERNOON (FRI): Becomes a Major Typhoon (Category 3) as it maintains its slow NNW track, passing well to the east of Northern Cagayan...about 278 km ESE of Aparri, Cagayan [2PM AUG 26: 18.0N 124.3E @ 195kph].
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Strengthens to Category 4 as it turn Northward...about 273 km East of Calayan Island, Cagayan [2AM AUG 27: 19.1N 124.1E @ 215kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Continues to move North slowly while reaching its peak intensity...about 229 km ESE of Basco, Batanes [2PM AUG 27: 19.9N 124.1E @ 220kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NANMADOL (MINA) will continue moving WNW to NW-ward and pass very close to the NE coast of Cagayan on Friday evening or Saturday...making a close pass-by east of Batanes on Saturday evening or Sunday. This scenario may happen if the small High Pressure Steering Ridge north of the typhoon will not weaken.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 150 km/hr (80 knots) with higher gusts. NANMADOL is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued strengthening will continue througout the forecast...and will likely become a Category 2 typhoon later tonight. Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 35 kilometers (20 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 165 kilometers (90 nautical miles). NANMADOL is an average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 555 kilometers (300 nautical miles) across.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Starts losing strength but remains at Category 4...starts to recurve towards Okinawa Area [2PM AUG 28: 21.3N 124.3E @ 215kph].
MONDAY AFTERNOON: Downgraded to Category 3 while moving NNE...starts interacting with TS TALAS (15W) located outside of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) [2PM AUG 29: 22.4N 125.0E @ 205kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Continues losing strength but still at Category 3...moving NE slowly. Interaction with TS TALAS (15W) continues [2PM AUG 30: 23.8N 126.3E @ 195kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Extended Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km on Day 3...450 km on Day 4...and 650 km on Day 5, while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EXTENDED FORECAST TRACK (3 to 5 days)*
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NANMADOL's (MINA) circulation remains organized and strong, with convective rainbands expanding on all quadrants. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
19-KM CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not affecting any islands or land areas . Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - spreading & affecting portions of Northern & Eastern Luzon. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 220 to 400 mm (high) along areas near the center of NANMADOL (MINA). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Aurora, Isabela, Cagayan, & Batanes Group of Islands. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Bicol Region & Quezon Provinces. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with occasional rains, squalls or thunderstorms will continue to prevail across the following affected areas: THE VISAYAS, PALAWAN, MINDORO, ROMBLON, BORACAY, WESTERN MINDANAO, SOUTHERN TAGALOG PROVINCES, METRO MANILA & BICOL REGION. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will experience stormy weather - where winds of 60-100 kph can be expected tomorrow. Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts. The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signal Number 1 are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph tonight & tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 25 AUGUST POSITION: 16.3N 125.1E.
*TYPHOON (TY) 14W (NANMADOL), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 630 NM SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST OF KADENA AB, OKINAWA, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED WEST-NORTHWEST-
WARD AT 06 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE SYSTEM HAS DEVELOPED A WELL-DEFINED
10-NM EYE AS IT BEGAN TO TRACK ON A MORE POLEWARD DIRECTION. THE
INITIAL POSITION IS BASED ON THE ABOVE ANIMATION WITH HIGH
CONFIDENCE. THE INITIIAL INTENSITY IS BASED ON DVORAK ESTIMATES
FROM PGTW, KNES, AND RJTD, RANGING FROM 77 TO 90 KNOTS. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES TY 14W IS DIRECTLY BENEATH A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF LOW (05-10 KT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). ANIMATED WATER
VAPOR IMAGERY SHOWS EXCELLENT POLEWARD OUTFLOW INTO A TUTT CELL TO
THE NORTH NEAR TAIWAN AND GOOD EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW ENHANCED BY THE
RIDGE. THE CYCLONE IS TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF
A DEEP-LAYERED SUBTROPICAL RIDGE (STR) ANCHORED OVER THE DATELINE
NORTH OF MIDWAY ISLAND. IT IS EXPECTED TO TURN MORE POLEWARD OVER
THE NEXT 72 HOURS, THEN NORHTEASTWARD, AS IT TRACES THE WESTERN
EXTENT OF THE STR. TY 14W WILL CONTINUE TO INTENSIFY AT A SLIGHTLY
HIGHER THAN NORMAL RATE DUE TO THE HIGHLY FAVORABLE ENVIRONMENTAL
CONDITIONS AHEAD - LOW VWS, WARMM SST'S, AND EXCELLENT OUTFLOW. THE
AVAILABLE NUMERICAL GUIDANCE ARE IN BETTER AGREEMENT THAN IN
PREVIOUS RUNS WITH EGRR AS THE SOLE LEFT OUTLIER. THIS TRACK
FORECAST IS SLIGHTLY TO THE RIGHT OF CONSENSUS AT THE ONSET TO
OFFSET EGRR'S UNLIKELY WESTWARD DEVIATION, THEN A BIT MORE TO THE
RIGHT AFTER TAU 48 IN ANTICIPATION OF A POSSIBLE INTERACTION WITH
A LARGE INTENSIFYING CYCLONE TO THE EAST...(more info)
>> NANMADOL, meaning: A famous Pohnpei ruin; the "Venice of the Pacific".
Name contributed by: Micronesia.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
*WARNING ERROR: THE SATELLITE ANIMATION BELOW IS NOT CURRENTLY ALIGNED W/ THE CORRESPONDING LAND AREAS. CHECK THE
ABOVE IMAGE FOR THE CORRECT ALIGNMENT.
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY NANMADOL (MINA)...go visit our website @:
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