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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, SMS, twitter and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).
TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 120 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 024
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 02 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The large core of Typhoon TALAS (15W) continues to move closer toward the southern coast of Japan particulartly Shikoku. Rainbands w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds battering Honshu, Shikoku & Southern Honshu.
Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri September 02 2011
Location of Center: 30.8º N Lat 134.8º E Lon
Distance 1: 324 km SSE of Kochi, Japan
Distance 2: 327 km SSW of Tanabe, Japan
Distance 3: 380 km SSW of Wakayama, Japan
Distance 4: 442 km SSE of Okayama, Japan
Distance 5: 509 km SSW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 6: 454 km SSE of Hiroshima, Japan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 175 kph (95 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Shikoku-Western Honshu Area
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 250 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 25-30 mm/hr (Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 965 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 1,205 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 40 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 12 PM JST Fri Sep 02
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
TALAS (15W) is expected to accelerate toward the NNW during the next 24 hours, with a turn towards the North through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the large core of the typhoon will make landfall in Southern Shikoku, Japan late tonight and then move across Western Honshu Saturday. TALAS will be along the central part of Japan Sea by Sunday. Below is the summary of the 2-day forecast for this system.
SATURDAY MORNING: Moving Northward across Western Honshu...downgraded into a Tropical Storm (TS)...about 90 km NW of Okayama, Japan [11AM SEP 03: 35.4N 133.4E @ 100kph].
SUNDAY MORNING: Over the Sea of Japan...accelerating Northward...about 535 km North of Okayama, Japan [8AM SEP 04: 39.5N 134.3E @ 95kph].
Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. TALAS will remain at Category 1 threshold prior in making landfall in Shikoku, Japan. Weakening of TALAS into a Tropical Storm is expected after it reaches the coast of Southeastern Shikoku.
Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-110 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 1,205 kilometers (650 nautical miles).
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
TALAS' (15W) large radial circulation remains intact with a very large center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
LARGE EYE-LIKE CENTER - over water (Western Pacific)...not affecting any land areas. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Shikoku, Kyushu & Honshu. Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Tropical Storm to Near-Typhoon Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the whole of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 200 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 205 to 310 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Shikoku, Southern Honshu & Southern Kyushu. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Japan. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Partly sunny to cloudy skies with a passing showers, rains or squalls w/ thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN LUZON including METRO MANILA. Moderate to strong SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 02 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 30.3N 135.2E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 15W (TALAS), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 280 NM
SOUTHEAST OF IWAKUNI, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD AT 08
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. TS 15W IS ZEROING IN ON OSAKA BAY AND
THE KANSAI REGION OF HONSHU WHILE MAINTAINING A STEADY INTENSITY.
RECENT ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS THE LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) EXPANDING EVEN MORE. THE DIAMETER OF THE
OPEN AREA IS NOW 140 NM. THE SIZE OF THE LLCC AND THE UPPER LEVEL
CYCLONE HAVE PREVENTED CONVECTION FROM CONSOLIDATING OVER THE
SYSTEM. THE OUTER RAIN BANDS ARE BRINGING HEAVY PRECIPITATION TO
SHIKOKU AND THE WAKAYAMA PREFECTURE. COASTAL STATIONS ARE REPORTING
NEAR GALE FORCE WINDS, AND THE 011200Z SOUNDING FROM SHIONOMISAKI
(WAKAYAMA PENINSULA, WMO 47778) REVEALED 50 KNOT WINDS BEGINNING AT
ONE THOUSAND FEET. 20 KT SOUTHEASTERLIES HAVE SET IN AT TOKUSHIMA
AIRPORT (RJOS). A 011135Z ASCAT IMAGE CAPTURES THE EXPANSIVE NATURE
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING GALE FORCE WINDS EXTENDING OVER 200 NM
OUTWARDS IN THE NORTHERN SEMICIRCLE. A 012256Z SSMIS IMAGE COMPARED
TO PREVIOUS MICROWAVE IMAGERY INDICATES THE LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE
BANDS ARE BECOMING MORE ELONGATED AND LESS CONCENTRIC AROUND THE
LLCC, AND THE HIGHER FREQUENCIES SHOW A SIGNIFICANT DROP-OFF IN DEEP
CONVECTION. THE CURRENT INTENSITY IS BASED ON A COMBINATION OF
SURFACE REPORTS, UPPER AIR SOUNDINGS FROM SHIONOMISAKI AND HAMAMATSU
AIR BASE, AND AN EARLIER ASCAT IMAGE RATHER THAN SUBJECTIVE DVORAK
ESTIMATES. THE EXPANSIVENESS OF TS 15W IS MAKING FOR DVORAK
ESTIMATES THAT ARE BELOW ACTUAL INTENSITY. ANIMATED WATER
VAPORIMAGERY REVEALS A WELL-DEVELOPED POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL ON
THE NORTHEAST QUADRANT AS THE STORM TAPS INTO AN UPPER LEVEL TROUGH.
THE TROUGH IS SUPPORTING A COLD FRONT THAT WILL COME INTO PLAY AFTER
THE STORM CROSSES HONSHU. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR REMAINS UNDER 10
KNOTS AND SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURE (SST) HAS INCREASED TO 28 DEGREES.
TS 15W IS BEING STEERED ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF A BLOCKING RIDGE
THAT HAS SET UP OVER WESTPAC. THE OMEGA BLOCK IS DRIVING TS 15W
TOWARDS OSAKA BAY AND THE KANSAI REGION OF HONSHU...more info)
>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; Acuteness. Name contributed by: Philippines.
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TY TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:
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