Monday, September 05, 2011

TS TALAS [15W] - Update #032

 


for Monday, 05 September 2011 [8:15 AM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday August 25 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on TALAS (15W).


TALAS (15W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL STORM TALAS [15W/1112]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 032

5:00 AM PhT (21:00 GMT) Mon 05 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm TALAS (15W) now well over the Sea of Japan...becoming Extratropical.

Residents and visitors along Eastern Russia should closely monitor the progress of TALAS.

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 AM PhT Mon September 05 2011
Location of Center: 37.7º N Lat 135.1º E Lon
Distance 1: 274 km NNW of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 2: 266 km NW of Osaka, Japan
Distance 3: 659 km SSE of Vladivostok, Russia
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 110 kph (60 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Sea Of Japan-Eastern Russia
24hr Rainfall Accum (East of center): 180 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 20-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 994 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 945 km [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
RSMC-JMA TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM JST Mon Sep 05


1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

TALAS (15W) is expected to accelerate towards the North during the next 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will continue to move across the Sea of Japan through Tuesday. TALAS will become an Extratropical Low prior in approaching the coast of Eastern Russia. Below is the summary of the 1-day forecast for this system.

TUESDAY MORNING:  Just along the northern part of the Sea of Japan, approaching the coast of Eastern Russia...about 334 km ESE of Vladivostok, Russia [5AM SEP 06: 41.7N 135.5E @ --kph].

Maximum Sustained Winds (10-min. avg) remain near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. TALAS is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

TALAS remains a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 945 kilometers (510 nautical miles).

*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

TALAS' (15W) circulation becoming more disorganized as it loses tropical characteristics while moving across the Sea of Japan. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

DECAYING RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Northern portions of Honshu & the Sea of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 180 mm (high) along areas near the center of TALAS (15W). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, extended forecast, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) SUN 04 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 37.0N 134.5E.
*N/A..more info)

>> TALAS, meaning: Sharpness; AcutenessName contributed by: Philippines.
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RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART
:

 
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RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  



> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
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LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  




> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TS TALAS (15W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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