Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Typhoon ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #26


for Wednesday, 21 September 2011 [5:33 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 21 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 130 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 145 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 150 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Wed 21 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #040/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon ROKE (ONYOK) has made landfall over Hamamatsu, Japan at approximately 2:00 PM JST...rapidly weakens to a Category 1 passing close to Tokyo. Strong winds and widespread rains continues to lash South-Central Honshu.

Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Wed September 21 2011
Location of Eye: 36.0º N Lat 139.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 56 km WNW of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 2: 180 km East of Osaka, Japan
Distance 3: 226 km ENE of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 4: 223 km South of Niigata, Japan
Distance 5: 297 km SSW of Sendai, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 130 kph (70 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 160 kph (85 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 42 kph (23 kts)
Towards: Eastern Honshu
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 970 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 925 km (500 nm) [Very Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Wed Sep 21


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to continue moving quickly NE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will continue to traverse Central Honshu and pass just north of Tokyo tonight. ROKE will exit Japan via Eastern Honshu early Thursday.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 130 km/hr (70 knots) with higher gusts. ROKE is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected during the next few hours as the typhoon traverses Honshu. It will be downgraded to a Tropical Storm tonight. ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone after the system exits Honshu, Japan Thursday.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 120 kilometers (65 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles). KULAP is a very large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 925 kilometers (500 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 24-hour forecast outlook on this system:

THURSDAY EARLY MORNING:  Exits Japan, via Eastern Honshu...becoming Extratropical...about 185 km NE of Sendai, Japan [2AM SEP 22: 39.3N 142.6 @ 100kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON:  Becomes an Extratropical Cyclone as it approaches the Kuril Island Chain...about 123 km South of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 22: 43.9N 147.7E @ 95kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized but continues to decay...with its eye now filled-in on satellite imageries, but still well-defined on land-based radars. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - Over South-Central Honshu. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting and spreading across Shizuoka Prefecture this afternoon and into Kanto Plain early tonight. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern & Mid-Central Honshu including Metropolitan Tokyo. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Rest of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 75 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan particularly the southern shores of Shikoku & Honshu. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) and other shorelines of Japan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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