for Wednesday, 28 September 2011 [6:57 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 28 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NALGAE (QUIEL).
NALGAE (QUIEL) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 100 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NALGAE [QUIEL/22W/1119]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 003
6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Thu 29 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NALGAE (a Korean word for "wing") (QUIEL) continues to accelerate Westward w/ a slight WSW bend...Forecast Projection of all Asian agencies (except PAGASA) show a passage over or near Cagayan & Ilocos Norte on Saturday evening (Oct 1-2).
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Northern Cagayan...passing over/near Aparri at approx 6-8 PM local time Saturday.
Residents and visitors along Northern Luzon should closely monitor the progress of NALGAE (QUIEL).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Thu September 29 2011
Location of Eye: 18.0º N Lat 132.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 1116 km ESE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 2: 1102 km ENE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 3: 1120 km East of Aparri, Cagayan
Distance 4: 1123 km ENE of Tuguegarao City
Distance 5: 1236 km East of Laoag City
Distance 6: 1263 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 120 kph (65 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 150 kph (80 kts)
Present Movement: WSW-West @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Extreme Northern Luzon
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 200 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Light-Mod)
Minimum Central Pressure: 974 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 390 km (210 nm) [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 20 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 PM PhT Thu Sep 29
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NALGAE (QUIEL) will move generally westward (known in meteorology as a "Straight-Runner") throughout the forecast period, with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the core of the typhoon will traverse the shores of Cagayan and Ilocos Norte Saturday evening (Oct 1) through Sunday early morning (Oct 02)...and be over the West Philippine Sea (South China Sea) by Sunday afternoon.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 120 km/hr (65 knots) with higher gusts. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 72 hours...and NALGAE could become a Category 2 Typhoon Friday night. This cyclone is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 20 kilometers (10 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 160 kilometers (85 nautical miles). NALGAE is a small to average-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 390 kilometers (210 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Maintains its intensification trend as it moves west across the North Philippine Sea [2PM SEP 30: 17.9N 128.1E @ 150kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Rapidly intensifying into a Category 3 Typhoon as it prepares to make landfall while along the coast of Northern Cagayan [2PM OCT 01: 18.3N 122.7E @ 185kph].
SUNDAY AFTERNOON: Moving into the West Philippine Sea, after passing near Laoag City in Ilocos Norte...weakens to Category 1 [8AM OCT 02: 18.3N 117.8E @ 140kph].
NESAT's (PEDRING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
NORTHERN CAGAYAN: Passing over/near Aparri...[ETA: 6:00-8:00 PM Local Time, Saturday].
ILOCOS NORTE: Passing over/near Laoag City [ETA: 12:00-2:00 AM Sunday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NALGAE's (QUIEL's) compact circulation continues to improve as it barrels WSW-Westward across the North Philippine Sea. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
SMALL, CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (North Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE). EYEWALL - over water (West Philippine Sea). Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall). INNER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (North Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 200 mm (high) along areas near the center of NALGAE (QUIEL). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TY NALGAE (QUIEL)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2211.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
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> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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