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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday Sep 24 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NESAT (PEDRING).
NESAT (PEDRING) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 120 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 115 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TYPHOON NESAT [PEDRING/20W/1117]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010
6:00 AM PhT (22:00 GMT) Mon 26 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #010/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon NESAT (PEDRING) has slightly intensified as it moves Westward across the Philippine Sea...endangers Central & Northern Luzon.
Projected Landfall Area (PLA): Aurora on Tuesday morning...with possible entry point between Baler & Casiguran.
Residents and visitors along Luzon particularly Northern Bicol, Northern Quezon, Aurora & Isabela should closely monitor the progress of NESAT (PEDRING).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 6:00 AM PhT Sun September 25 2011
Location of Eye: 15.1º N Lat 126.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 261 km ENE of Pandan, Catanduanes
Distance 2: 290 km NE of Virac, Catanduanes
Distance 3: 360 km NE of Legazpi City
Distance 4: 383 km ENE of Metro Naga/CWC
Distance 5: 393 km ENE of Daet, CamNorte
Distance 6: 476 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora
Distance 7: 506 km ENE of Infanta, Quezon
Distance 8: 583 km ENE of Metro Manila
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 140 kph (75 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 165 kph (90 kts)
Present Movement: WNW @ 22 kph (12 kts)
Towards: Aurora-Quirino Area
CPA [ETA] to Aurora: Tuesday Morning [6-7am PhT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): 15-20 mm/hr (Moderate)
Minimum Central Pressure: 967 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 1
Size (in Diameter): 835 km (450 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m]
T2K TrackMap (for Public): 6 AM PhT Mon Sep 26
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
NESAT (PEDRING) is expected to start moving WNW troughout the forecast period with little change in its forward speed. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will pass more or less 200 km to the north of Bicol Region late this afternoon or evening...and will touchdown over Aurora Province in between Baler and Casiguran by Tuesday morning. NESAT will then cross the northern part of Central Luzon - moving across Quirino, Nueva Vizcaya, Benguet...and exit the area through La Union Tuesday evening. By Wednesday evening, NESAT will exit the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) on its way towards Hainan Island, Southern China.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 140 km/hr (75 knots) with higher gusts. NESAT is a Category 1 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Gradual strengthening will continue during the 24 hours...and NESAT could be near-Super Typhoon strength before it makes landfall Tuesday. This system will gradually weaken just below typhoon strength as it traverses Luzon Tuesday...and will regain typhoon status upon moving back to sea by Wednesday.
Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 75 kilometers (40 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 280 kilometers (150 nautical miles). NESAT is now a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 835 kilometers (450 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY EARLY MORNING: Intensifies to a Category 4 Typhoon as it approaches the coast of Aurora...about 111 km ESE of Casiguran, Aurora [2AM SEP 27: 15.7N 123.0 @ 215kph].
WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING: Regains Typhoon status as it moves out into the West Philippine Sea...about 140 km WNW of San Fernando, La Union [2AM SEP 28: 16.8N 119.0E @ 140kph].
THURSDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength as it exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) towards Southern China...about 552 km WNW of Vigan City, Ilocos Sur, PH [2AM SEP 29: 17.9 115.2E @ 140kph].
**Alternate Forecast Scenario (AFS): There is a possibility that NESAT (PEDRING) will continue moving Westward and make landfall over Northern Quezon & Southern Aurora instead...cutting across Central Luzon...and exiting along Pangasinan-Northern Zambales Area. This scenario may happen if the High Pressure Steering Ridge northeast of the typhoon will not weaken & extends westward.
NESAT's (PEDRING) CLOSEST POINT OF APPROACH (CPA)*
AURORA: JIn between Baler & Casiguran...[ETA: 7:00-8:00 AM Local Time, Tuesday].
QUIRINO: Moving across the central part of the province [ETA: 8:00-9:00 AM Tuesday].
BAGUIO CITY: Passing very close to the south (about 5-10km) [ETA: 5:00-7:00 PM Tuesday].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
NESAT's (PEDRING) circulation is now large w/ very deep rainband-convection along its rainbands. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (Philippine Sea). Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Philippine Sea)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Bicol Region, Aurora, Southern & Central Luzon, Metro Manila, Mindoro, Northern & Eastern Visayas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (high) along areas near the center of NESAT (PEDRING). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 4-5 ft [1.2-1.7 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Eastern & Northern Bicol Region. Minimal damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of Luzon & Visayas. (click here to know more about Storm Surge).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Storm HAITANG (21W) moving very slowly over the South China Sea, near Hainan. The system was located about 228 km SE of Hainan Island (16.9N 111.4E)...maximum sustained winds of 65 kph...gusting up to 85 kph...moving West @ 05 kph. To view the latest information on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: VISAYAS & PALAWAN. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 40 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
PAGASA Philippine Storm Warnings Signals
The above areas will continue to experience stormy weather today until tomorrow (with winds not exceeding 100 kph). Coastal waters will be rough to very rough and extremely dangerous to all types of seacrafts.
The above areas will have rains and winds of not more than 60 kph beginning today until tomorrow. Coastal waters will be moderate to rough.
Residents living in low-lying and mountainous areas under Public Storm Warning Signals are alerted against flashfloods, mudslides and landslides...while those living in coastal & beach-front areas are advised to seek higher grounds due to possible storm surge (aka. big waves).
External Links for TY NESAT (PEDRING)
PAGASA@Twitter: Hourly Updates
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp2011.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
TYPHOON2000 CURRENT STORMTRACK:
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
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