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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 007
11:00 AM PhT (03:00 GMT) Fri 09 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #008/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression KULAP (NONOY) continues losing strength...will pass over the Ryukyus this afternoon.
Residents and visitors along the Ryukyus & the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 11:00 AM PhT Fri September 09 2011
Location of Center: 28.4º N Lat 130.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 63 km ESE of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 332 km NE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 356 km South of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 952 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,230 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 17 kph (09 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Naje: Today [1-3pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 150 mm (Heavy)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9 AM JST Fri Sep 09
36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (NONOY) is expected to resume its NW track during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass over or very close to the Japanese Island of Naje off the Ryukyus later today...and move across the East China Sea Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will eventually dissipate within 24 to 36 hours.
The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EVENING: Moving NW-ward away from the Ryukyus...about 127 km NNW of Naje Island [8PM SEP 09: 29.5N 129.0 @ 45kph].
SATURDAY MORNING: Maintains its strength while moving into the East China Sea...about 320 km SSE of Cheju Island, South Korea [8AM SEP 10: 30.7N 127.4E @ 45kph].
SATURDAY EVENING: Degenerates into an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance) while passing well to the south of Cheju Island...about 136 km South of the island [8PM SEP 10: 32.3N 126.3E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the 36-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation somewhat disorganized - revealing a fully-exposed low-level circulation center with rain-cloud convection displaced hundreds of kilometers to the SSE. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
DISPLACED RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Ryukyus. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 25 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 30 to 150 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) continues to consolidate to the NNE of Guam...may likely to develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 days. The system was located about 761 km NNE of Guam, CNMI (20.0N 146.7E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...barely moving. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains @ MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 8 AM (00 GMT) FRI 09 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 28.0N 130.9E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY
190 NM EAST-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD
AT 09 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL
CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH SHALLOW REMNANT CONVECTION SHEARED
OVER 220 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS EXTRAPOLATED FROM
NEARBY SURFACE OBSERVATIONS. DVORAK ESTIMATES ARE UNCLASSIFIABLE DUE
TO THE GREAT DISPLACEMENT OF THE LLCC FROM THE CONVECTION. UPPER
LEVEL ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED IN AN AREA OF HIGH
(20 TO 30 KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS) 10 DEGREES SOUTHEAST OF
A RIDGE AXIS. TD 17W IS CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN
PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL STEERING RIDGE EAST OF
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
For the complete details on TD KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
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