for Friday, 09 September 2011 [5:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 45 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 60 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 45 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL DEPRESSION KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 008
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Fri 09 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #009/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Depression KULAP (NONOY) decaying near the Ryukyus...expected to dissipate near Cheju Island tomorrow.
Residents and visitors along the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Fri September 09 2011
Location of Center: 29.7º N Lat 129.7º E Lon
Distance 1: 123 km North of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 228 km SSW of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 3: 402 km NNE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 514 km SE of Cheju Is., S.Korea
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 45 kph (25 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 65 kph (35 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 24 kph (13 kts)
Towards: Cheju Island-Korea
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 20 mm (Low-Med)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1002 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 280 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Fri Sep 09
36-HOUR FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (NONOY) is expected to generally maintain its NW track during the next 36 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the depression will pass over or very close to the South Korean Island of Cheju early Sunday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 45 km/hr (25 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a weak Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. This system will eventually dissipate within 24 to 36 hours.
The following is the summary of the 36-hour forecast outlook on this system:
SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving NW-ward farther away from the Ryukyus...about 275 km NNW of Naje Island [2AM SEP 10: 30.8N 128.5 @ 45kph].
SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Degenerates into an area of low pressure (Tropical Disturbance) as it approaches Cheju Island...about 155 km SSE of Cheju [2PM SEP 10: 32.2N 127.2E @ 35kph].
SUNDAY EARLY MORNING: Dissipating in the vicinity of Cheju Island [2AM SEP 11: 33.5N 126.4E @ 35kph].
*Please be reminded that the 36-hour Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation somewhat disorganized - revealing a fully-exposed low-level circulation center with little rain clouds along its periphery. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
. DISSIPATING THIN RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Ryukyus. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 10 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 15 to 20 mm (low to medium) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH
Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) continues to consolidate to the north of the Marianas...may develop into a Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 days. The system was located about 824 km North of Guam, CNMI (20.8N 145.2E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving NW slowly. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential remains @ MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Partly sunny to mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: THE WHOLE OF THE PHILIPPINES. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) FRI 09 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 29.3N 130.1E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 215 NM
NORTH-NORTHEAST OF KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHWESTWARD
AT 13 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL
SATELLITE IMAGERY (MSI) SHOWS A DEFINED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER
(LLCC) WITH WEAKENING LOW LEVEL CONVECTIVE BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC AND NO ASSOCIATED DEEP CONVECTION. THE INITIAL POSITION IS
BASED ON THE MSI WITH GOOD CONFIDENCE. THE INITIAL INTENSITY IS
BASED ON A 1009 MB SURFACE OBSERVATION (RJKA) 60 NM TO THE SOUTH-
SOUTHWEST. A 090436Z AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS THE FULLY EXPOSED
LLCC WITH DRY AIR WRAPPING AROUND THE EASTERN PERIPHERY. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED SOUTH OF A RIDGE AXIS IN AN
AREA OF HIGH (20- TO 30-KNOT) VERTICAL WIND SHEAR (VWS). TD 17W IS
CURRENTLY TRACKING ALONG THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW LEVEL
STEERING RIDGE, WHICH SHOULD REMAIN THE STEERING INFLUENCE
THROUGHOUT THE FORECAST PERIOD. TD 17W WILL CONTINUE TO WEAKEN DUE
TO INCREASING VWS AND DISSIPATE AS A SIGNIFICANT TROPICAL CYCLONE
(BELOW 25 KNOTS) WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS. NUMERICAL MODEL GUIDANCE
IS IN GOOD AGREEMENT WITH DISSIPATION SOUTH OF KOREA...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:
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> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TD KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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