for Thursday, 08 September 2011 [6:30 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Thursday Sep 08 2011):
Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (NONOY).
KULAP (NONOY) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM KULAP [NONOY/17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 005
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Thu 08 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #005/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm KULAP (NONOY) continues to track northwest towards the Ryukyu Islands.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus & the Korean Peninsula should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (NONOY).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Thu September 08 2011
Location of Center: 25.9º N Lat 133.2º E Lon
Distance 1: 451 km SE of Naje Is., Japan
Distance 2: 543 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 682 km SE of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 1,168 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 5: 1,297 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 75 kph (40 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: NW @ 19 kph (10 kts)
Towards: Ryukyu Islands
CPA [ETA] to Naje: Friday [2-4pm HKT]
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 220 mm (Heavy)
Rainrate (near center): 20-30 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 993 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 335 km [Small]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 14 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Thu Sep 08
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP's (NONOY) general northwesterly motion is expected to continue during the next two days. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will pass over or very close to the Japanese Island of Naje off the Ryukyus on Friday afternoon...and across the East China Sea on Saturday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 75 km/hr (40 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale...some weakening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 km/hr) extend outward up to 130 kilometers (70 nautical miles) from the center. KULAP is a small-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 335 kilometers (180 nautical miles).
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
FRIDAY EARLY MORNING: Maintains its strength and NW motion...about 273 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2AM SEP 09: 27.0N 131.9 @ 75kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Passing across the Ryukyus...about 20 km East of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2PM SEP 09: 28.6N 130.0E @ 75kph]. SATURDAY EARLY MORNING: Moving away from the Ryukyus...about 212 km NW of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2AM SEP 10: 29.9N 128.2E @ 75kph]. SATURDAY AFTERNOON: Weakening as it starts to turn more NNW...approaching Cheju Island...about 234 km South of Cheju Is., South Korea [2PM SEP 10: 31.4N 126.5E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
TROPICAL CYCLONE WATCH CURRENT ITCZ/MONSOON TROUGH INTENSITY: STRONG >> Mostly cloudy skies with scattered to widespread rains, squalls & thunderstorms will be expected across the following affected areas: SOUTHERN LUZON, BICOL, PALAWAN, & VISAYAS. Calm & light to moderate SE'ly to SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (NONOY) circulation has slightly become disorganized - revealing an exposed low-level circulation center with rain-cloud convection displaced on the south side. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 105 to 220 mm (high) along areas near the center of KULAP. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
A new Tropical Disturbance 91W (LPA) NNE of Guam may develop into another Tropical Cyclone within the next 2 days. The system was located about 706 km NNW of Guam, CNMI (18.9N 148.1E)...maximum sustained winds of 30 kph...moving West @ 05 kph. The 24-hour TC Formation Potential is MEDIUM (50%). To view the latest satellite image on this storm kindly click this link.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) THU 08 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 25.5N 133.6E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP) LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 320 NM EAST OF
KADENA AB, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWESTWARD AT 10 KNOTS OVER THE
PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL SATELLITE IMAGERY SHOWS A
WELL-DEFINED, FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH
THE DEEP CONVECTION SHEARED 130 NM TO THE SOUTH. THE INITIAL
INTENSITY IS BASED ON A 080115Z ASCAT PASS DEPICTING STRONG 30- TO
40- KNOT WINDS ALONG THE EASTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. UPPER LEVEL
ANALYSIS INDICATES THE SYSTEM IS LOCATED DIRECTLY BENEATH A TROPICAL
UPPER TROPOSPHERIC TROUGH CAUSING SUBSIDENCE ALOFT. ADDITIONALLY, A
080443 AMSU MICROWAVE IMAGE DEPICTS DRY AIR WRAPPING ALONG THE
WESTERN PERIPHERY OF THE LLCC. TS 17W IS CURRENLTY TRACKING ALONG
THE SOUTHWESTERN PERIPHERY OF A LOW- TO MID-LEVEL SUBTROPICAL
STEERING RIDGE. THE SYSTEM IS EXPECTED TO CONTINUE TRACKING
NORTHWESTWARD OVER THE NEXT 48 HOURS, WHEN AN APPROACHING MID-
LATITUDE TROUGH WILL BEGIN TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND ALLOW TS
17W TO ROUND THE RIDGE AXIS. BY TAU 96, THE SYSTEM IS FORECAST TO
COMPLETE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION (ETT). TS 17W SHOULD MAINTAIN
INTENSITY AND THEN BY TAU 48 BEGIN TO WEAKEN DUE TO INCREASED
VERTICAL WIND SHEAR AND COOLER SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES. NUMERICAL
MODEL GUIDANCE REMAINS SPLIT IN THE TURN POLEWARD. THIS FORECAST
FAVORS A DEEPER TROUGH TO WEAKEN THE STEERING RIDGE AND IS IN
AGREEMENT WITH ECMWF, GFS, WBAR, AND JGSM. HOWEVER, TS 17W COULD
POTENTIALLY WEAKEN BELOW 25 KNOTS BEFORE COMPLETING ETT...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
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RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KULAP (NONOY)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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