Tuesday, September 06, 2011

TD NORU [16W] - Update #010

 


for Tuesday, 06 September 2011 [6:30 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Saturday September 03 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on NORU (16W).


NORU (16W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:

+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 55 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 75 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


TROPICAL DEPRESSION NORU [16W/1113]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 010

5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Tue 06 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC TC Warning #013/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
NORU (16W) nearing Extratropical status...downgraded to a Tropical Depression.

Sailors and Sea Navigators near its path should closely monitor the progress of NORU (16W).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


CURRENT STORM INFORMATION

Time/Date: 5:00 pM PhT Tue September 06 2011
Location of Center: 40.5º N Lat 150.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 600 km South of Kuril Islands
Distance 2: 788 km ESE of Sapporo, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 55 kph (30 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 75 kph (40 kts)
Present Movement: NNE @ 31 kph (17 kts)
Towards: Kuril Islands
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 105 mm (Medium)
Rainrate (near center): 15-25 mm/hr (Mod-Heavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Depression
Size (in Diameter): 835 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 19 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 3:00 PM JST Tue Sep 06


1-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*

NORU (16W) is expected to resume a straight Northerly track during the next 24 hours...On the forecast track, the center of NORU will pass along the Kuril Islands Wednesday morning as an Extratropical Cyclone.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 55 km/hr (30 knots) with higher gusts. NORU is a Tropical Depression (TD) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale.

The following is the summary of the 1-day forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EARLY MORNING:  Nearing Extratropical status while approaching Kuril Islands...about 300 km South of Kuril Islands [2AM SEP 07: 43.8N 150.6E @ 55kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Becomes Extratropical...moving away from the Kuril Islands...about 400 km North of Kuril Islands [2PM SEP 07: 49.3N 149.6E @ 55kph].

*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY

NORU's (16W) disorganized circulation spreading across the open waters of the Western Pacific. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific Ocean)...not affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 20 mm (low rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 21 to 105 mm (low to medium) along areas near the center of NORU. (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!


JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:

REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) TUE 06 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 39.4N 150.2E.
*TROPICAL DEPRESSION (TD) 16W (NORU), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 415 NM
EAST OF MISAWA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTH-NORTHEASTWARD AT
17 KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. THE EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION
PROCESS IS WELL UNDERWAY AS TD 16W TRACKS INTO THE HIGHER LATITUDES.
SEA SURFACE TEMPERATURES HAVE DROPPED PRECIPITOUSLY DURING THE PAST
12 HOURS AND ARE NOW BELOW THE MINIMUM VALUES NECESSARY TO SUPPORT A
WARM CORE SYSTEM. THE MOST RECENT AMSUB TEMPERATURE PROFILE REVEALS
A COLD ANOMALY HAS FORMED AT 14 KFT AND THAT THE WARM ANOMALY IS
WEAKENING AND SINKING. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY REVEALS A
FULLY EXPOSED LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC) WITH AN EXTENSIVE
REGION OF COLD AIR STRATOCUMULUS OVER THE NORTHWESTERN QUADRANT. THE
LLCC IS SEPARATING FROM THE MAIN AREA OF CONVECTION, WHICH IS
EASTWARD OF THE LLCC. LOW VERTICAL WIND SHEAR ALONG TRACK IS MAKING
FOR A SLOW EXTRA-TROPICAL TRANSITION. TD 14W IS BEING DRIVEN
POLEWARD ALONG THE WESTERN FLANK OF AN UNUSUALLY STRONG AND POLEWARD
HIGH PRESSURE SYSTEM THAT IS PART OF A BLOCKING PATTERN OVER THE
WESTERN PACIFIC...(
more info)

>> NORU, meaning: Roe DeerName contributed by: RO Korea.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND.COM (JTWC) TRACKING CHART
:

 
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART:


_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________ 

RECENT MTSAT-2 "DAY & NIGHT VISION" SATELLITE IMAGE
:


> Image source:  NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg 
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

RECENT WUNDERGROUND SATELLITE ANIMATION:  



> Image source:  Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________

LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP)
:  




> Image source:
  NOAA Satellite & Information Service (
http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
 
NOTE:
 
  * - JTWC commentary remarks (for Meteorologists) from their latest warning.
__________________________________________________________________________________________

>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

   
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm  
   
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
    http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
    http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
    http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________

For the complete details on TD NORU (16W)...go visit our website @:

>
http://www.typhoon2000.com
http://www.maybagyo.com

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