for Wednesday, 07 September 2011 [3:47 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 07 2011):
Now initiating the 6-hrly web and e-mail updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on KULAP (17W).
KULAP (17W) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): -- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 65 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): -- km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM KULAP [17W/1114]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 001
2:00 PM PhT (06:00 GMT) Wed 07 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/RSMC-JMA TC Warning/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
The small disturbance (LPA) {90W} off the northeasternmost Philippine Sea has gradually strengthened into Tropical Storm KULAP (17W)...barely moving during the past 3 hours...expected to threaten Okinawa and Ryukyu Islands this weekend. KULAP is a Thai word for a rose.
Residents and visitors along Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of KULAP (17W).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 2:00 PM PhT Wed September 07 2011
Location of Center: 21.5º N Lat 135.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 41 km East of P.A.R.
Distance 2: 706 km WSW of Iwo To
Distance 3: 951 km SE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 4: 1,395 km ENE of Basco, Batanes
Distance 5: 1,462 km ESE of Taipei, Taiwan
MaxWinds (10-min avg): 65 kph (35 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 95 kph (50 kts)
Present Movement: Quasi-Stationary
Towards: Southern Japan
Minimum Central Pressure: 1000 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 445 km [Average]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 12 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 0 ft [0 m]
JMA TrackMap (for Public): 3 PM JST Wed Sep 07
2-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
KULAP (17W) is expected to track Northward slowly during the next 24 hours...with a turn to the NNW through 48 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm shall enter the northernmost portion of the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) Thursday evening or Friday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) are near 65 km/hr (35 knots) with higher gusts. KULAP is a Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 48 hours.
The following is the summary of the 2-day forecast outlook on this system:
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Intensifying as it nears the NE corner of the PAR...about 826 km SE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 08: 23.3N 135.2 @ 75kph]. FRIDAY AFTERNOON: Enters PAR as it turns NNW-ward with no change in strength...about 688 km ESE of Okinawa, Japan [2PM SEP 09: 24.8N 134.4E @ 75kph].
*Please be reminded that the 2-Day Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
KULAP's (17W) circulation has started to gradually improved off the NE-most Philippine Sea.... Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas: INNER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-100 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - over water (Western Pacific)...not yet affecting any islands or major land areas. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
JTWC (US NAVY & AIR FORCE) REMARKS:
REMARKS (for Meteorologists): 2 PM (06 GMT) WED 07 SEPTEMBER POSITION: 21.8N 135.7E.
*TROPICAL STORM (TS) 17W (KULAP), LOCATED APPROXIMATELY 510 NM EAST-
SOUTHEAST OF KADENA AIR BASE, JAPAN, HAS TRACKED NORTHWARD AT 05
KNOTS OVER THE PAST SIX HOURS. ANIMATED MULTISPECTRAL IMAGERY SHOWS
A SMALL, DENSE, AND TIGHTLY ORGANIZED SYSTEM UNDERGOING RAPID
DEVELOPMENT. A 062356Z PARTIAL ASCAT IMAGE VERIFIES THE SMALL SIZE
OF THE SYSTEM, DEPICTING WINDS BELOW 25 KNOTS WITHIN 50 NM OF THE
LOW LEVEL CIRCULATION CENTER (LLCC). SYSTEM DIAMETER IS ESTIMATED AT
200 NM. A 37GHZ 071058Z TRMM IMAGE CAPTURES THE TIGHT CONSOLIDATION
OF THE SYSTEM, SHOWING TIGHTLY CURVED BANDING WRAPPING INTO THE
LLCC. THE SCATTERING FREQUENCIES ALSO CAPTURE THE INTENSITY AND
DEPTH OF CONVECTION OVER THE SYSTEM CENTER. ANIMATED WATER VAPOR
IMAGERY INDICATES A DEVELOPING POLEWARD OUTFLOW CHANNEL OVER THE
NORTHEAST QUADRANT, AND DECREASING SUBSIDENCE OVER THE NORTHWEST
QUADRANT. EQUATORWARD OUTFLOW IS ALSO IMPROVING. RECENT IMAGERY
SUGGESTS THAT WITH THE EXCEPTION OF THE POLEWARD CHANNEL, WHICH WILL
LIKELY BY SHORT-LIVED, THE SYSTEM IS DEVELOPING RADIAL OUTFLOW AND
ANNULAR CHARACTERISTICS. THE 070000Z PGTW UPPER LEVEL STREAMLINE
ANALYSIS REVEALS GOOD EXHAUST OVER THE LLCC, AND TOTAL PRECIPITABLE
WATER LOOPS REVEAL INCREASING SATURATION OF THE ENVIRONMENT
SURROUNDING THE STORM. VERTICAL WIND SHEAR IS 10 TO 15 KNOTS AND SEA
SURFACE TEMPERATURES IN THE REGION ARE 28 TO 29 DEGREES. THE SMALL
SIZE OF THE SYSTEM IS MAKING DVORAK ASSESSMENTS LESS REPRESENTATIVE
OF THE TRUE INTENSITY. THE CURRENT INTENSITY ANALYSIS IS BASED ON
THE MICROWAVE SIGNATURE FROM THE AFOREMENTIONED TRMM IMAGE AND A
PGTW DVORAK ASSESSMENT OF 35 KNOTS. THE STEERING FORCE FOR TS 17W IS
AN ANTICYCLONE EMBEDDED IN THE NEAR EQUATORIAL RIDGE (NER) SOUTHEAST
OF THE SYSTEM, WHICH IS PROVIDING A GENTLE NUDGE POLEWARD. A MAJOR
CHANGE IN THE SYNOPTIC PATTERN OVER THE WESTERN PACIFIC THAT WILL
AFFECT THE TRACK OF TS 17W IS TAKING PLACE. A DEEP TROUGH MOVING
OVER HONSHU IS BREAKING DOWN THE OMEGA BLOCK, AND AS IT DOES SO, THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE WILL RETROGRADE SOUTHWEST RAPIDLY, BUILDING OVER
THE BONIN ISLANDS AND THE RYUKUS. WITHIN THE NEXT 24 HOURS, TS 17W
WILL LEAVE THE INFLUENCE OF THE NER AND GET PICKED UP BY THE
SUBTROPICAL RIDGE, MAKING A SHARP TURN TO THE WEST. DUE TO THE SMALL
SIZE AND RAPID DEVELOPMENT OF TS 17W, MODEL GUIDANCE HAS NOT CAUGHT
UP WITH THE SYSTEM YET. THE JTWC FORECAST CALLS FOR INITIAL
INTENSIFICATION AT A GREATER THAN CLIMATOLOGICAL RATE ALONG THE
POLEWARD TRACK, AND THEN, IN ANTICIPATION OF THE DEVELOPMENT OF AN
ANNULAR STORM, A STABLE RATE ALONG THE WESTWARD LEG...(more info)
>> KULAP, meaning: Rose. Name contributed by: Thailand.
_______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT RSMC-JMA TRACKING CHART:
_________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
RECENT MULTI-AGENCY TROPICAL CYCLONE FORECAST TRACKING CHART: 
> Image source: NOAA SATELLITE CENTER: http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/mtsat/flt/t1/rgb.jpg
> Image source: Wunderground.com Tropical Page (http://www.wunderground.com/tropical)
____________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
LATEST 24HR. TOTAL RAINFALL AMOUNTS / ENSEMBLE TROPICAL RAINFALL POTENTIAL (eTRaP):
**NOT YET AVAILABLE
> Image source: NOAA Satellite & Information Service (http://www.ssd.noaa.gov/PS/TROP/etrap.html)
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.srh.noaa.gov/oun/severewx/glossary.php
http://www.srh.weather.gov/fwd/glossarynation.html
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
__________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS KULAP (17W)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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