Wednesday, September 21, 2011

Typhoon ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #25


for Wednesday, 21 September 2011 [12:45 PM PhT]

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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Wednesday Sep 21 2011):

Currently issuing 6-hrly web, email, & android (iTyphoon) updates (except 12:00 Midnight) on ROKE (ONYOK).


+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 165 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 140 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 160 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 160 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


12:15 PM PhT (04:15 GMT) Wed 21 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #039/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Typhoon ROKE (ONYOK) weakens to a Category 2 cyclone as it is about to make landfall along Southern Honshu. Typhoon conditions now being felt across the area.

Residents and visitors along Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 12:15 PM PhT Wed September 21 2011
Location of Eye: 34.4º N Lat 137.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 100 km SSE of Nagoya, Japan
Distance 2: 177 km SE of Kyoto, Japan
Distance 3: 179 km South of Osaka, Japan
Distance 4: 254 km WSW of Tokyo, Japan
Distance 5: 535 km SW of Sendai, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 165 kph (90 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 205 kph (110 kts)
Present Movement: NE @ 33 kph (18 kts)
Towards: Southern Honshu
CPA [ETA] to S.Honshu: This Afternoon [2-3pm JST]
12-18hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 75 mm (Med-High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 956 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Category 2
Size (in Diameter): 890 km (480 nm) [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 9 AM JST Wed Sep 21


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to continue picking-up speed NE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the typhoon will make landfall over Southern Honshu, just to the WSW of Tokyo this afternoon...and will pass well to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo early tonight. ROKE will be just along the eastern shores of Hokkaido Thursday morning.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have decreased to near 165 km/hr (90 knots) with higher gusts. ROKE is a Category 2 Typhoon on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Continued weakening is expected during the next few hours as it approaches the southern coast of Honshu. It will remain a typhoon prior in making landfall to Japan. ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 12 hours or just after the system exits Honshu, Japan.

Typhoon Force Winds (118 km/hr or more) extend outward up to 95 kilometers (50 nautical miles) from the center...and Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 370 kilometers (200 nautical miles). KULAP is a large-sized tropical cyclone with a diameter of 890 kilometers (480 nautical miles).

The following is the summary of the 24-hour forecast outlook on this system:

WEDNESDAY EVENING:  Quickly traversing South-Central Honshu...passing north of Tokyo...about 154 km to the NNE [8PM SEP 21: 37.0N 140.3 @ 100kph].
THURSDAY MORNING:  Just along the southeastern shores of Hokkaido...becomes an Extratropical Cyclone...about 436 km SW of Kuril Islands [8AM SEP 22: 41.9N 145.7E @ 100kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized but continues to decay...with its eye now filled-in on satellite imageries, but still well-defined on land-based radars. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CLOUD-FILLED EYE - over water (just south of Honshu)...expected to make landfall along Southern Honshu or along Shizuoka Prefecture this afternoon and into Kanto Plain early tonight. Possible calm and lull conditions (with <20 kph winds) will be expected inside the eye (click here to know more about the EYE).
EYEWALL - affecting and spreading across Shizuoka Prefecture this afternoon and into Kanto Plain early tonight. Typhoon Conditions with Typhoon Force Winds (>118 kph) will be expected within this wall (click here to know more about the Eyewall).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Southern & Mid-Central Honshu including Metropolitan Tokyo. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across the Rest of Japan. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
12-18HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 50 mm (low to medium rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 51 to 75 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
COASTAL STORM SURGE FLOODING - possible 6-8 ft [1.8-2.6 m] above normal tide levels...accompanied by large and dangerous battering waves can be expected along the coastal and beach front areas of Southern Japan particularly the southern shores of Shikoku & Honshu. Moderate damage is likely on this type of storm surge. Danger from Rip Currents or Rip Tides can be expected along the beach-front areas of the Southern Islands of Japan (Okinawa-Ryukyus) and other shorelines of Japan.
(click here to know more about Storm Surge).

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TY ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 24 Hours Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TY ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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