for Monday, 19 September 2011 [6:06 PM PhT]
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Typhoon2000 (T2K) NEWS (Friday Sep 16 2011):
Please be informed that beginning September 15 to 20 (Thu-Tue), T2K will be issuing irregular advisories as I am currently out for vacation. Kindly bear with me. Thank you ~ MVP.
ROKE (ONYOK) MAX WIND SPEED PER AGENCY:
+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): --- km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks
TROPICAL STORM ROKE [ONYOK/18W/1115]
T2K PUBLIC ADVISORY NUMBER 021
5:00 PM PhT (09:00 GMT) Mon 19 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #032/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) nearing Typhoon status as it moves Northward...passing just to the east of the Ryukyus.
This system will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional showers or rains w/ breezy conditions across portions of Western Luzon.
Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).
Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.
CURRENT STORM INFORMATION
Time/Date: 5:00 PM PhT Mon September 19 2011
Location of Center: 28.1º N Lat 130.3º E Lon
Distance 1: 74 km SE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 2: 304 km NE of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 390 km South of Kagoshima, Japan
Distance 4: 678 km SW of Kochi, Japan
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: North @ 15 kph (08 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 330 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 26 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Mon Sep 19
3-DAY FORECAST OUTLOOK & ANALYSIS*
ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move NNE to NE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours...accelerating further over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will make landfall over Southern Honshu, just to the WSW of Tokyo on Wednesday noontime...and will pass very close to the north of Metropolitan Tokyo early Wednesday evening. ROKE will be just along the Kuril Island Chain by Thursday.
Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) have increased to near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Some fluctuations on its intensity is forecast during the next 24 hours...and ROKE will start transforming from a Tropical Cyclone to an Extratropical Cyclone between 48 to 72 hours.
Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 185 kilometers (100 nautical miles) from the center.
The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:
TUESDAY AFTERNOON: Accelerates NE-ward away from the Ryukyus towards Southern Honshu...about 283 km SE of Kagoshima, Japan [2PM SEP 20: 29.9N 132.8 @ 110kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON: Decaying and traversing Southern Honshu...starts to transform into an Extratropical Cyclone...about 114 km WSW of Tokyo, Japan [2PM SEP 21: 35.4N 138.5E @ 85kph].
THURSDAY AFTERNOON: Becomes Extratropical as it moves quickly across the Kuril Islands...about 812 km ENE of Sapporo, Japan [2PM SEP 22: 46.4 150.5E @ 65kph].
*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.
EFFECTS & HAZARDS SUMMARY
ROKE's (ONYOK) large circulation remains organized w/ heavy rainband convection near the center. Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:
CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO). INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Ryukyus & the Southern Coast of Kyushu. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands. OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea, East China Sea, Okinawa, Rest of Kyushu & Shikoku. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands). 24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 330 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).
CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: WEAK >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: Portions of WESTERN LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.
Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!
External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)
View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 3 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop
>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:
http://typhoon2000.ph/tcterm.htm
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/aboutgloss.shtml
http://www.nhc.noaa.gov/acronyms.shtml
______________________________________________________________________________________________________________________________
For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:
> http://www.typhoon2000.com
> http://www.maybagyo.com
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