Sunday, September 18, 2011

TS ROKE [ONYOK] - Update #19


for Sunday, 18 September 2011 [7:00 PM PhT]

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+ USA (JTWC/1-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Japan (JMA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Philippines (PAGASA/10-min avg): 110 km/hr
+ Beijing (NMC/2-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Taiwan (CWB/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
+ Korea (KMA/10-min avg): 105 km/hr

+ Hong Kong (HKO/10-min avg): 105 km/hr
:: Click here to see Multi-Agency Forecast Tracks


6:00 PM PhT (10:00 GMT) Sun 18 September 2011
Source: T2K Analysis/JTWC Warning #028/SatFixes
View: Advisory Archives (2004-2011)
Tropical Storm ROKE (ONYOK) exits the Philippine Area of Responsibility (PAR) anew...accelerating poleward towards Southern Japan.

This system will continue to slightly enhance the Southwest Monsoon (aka. Habagat) & bring occasional showers or rains w/ breezy conditions across the Western Coast of Luzon.

Residents and visitors along the Okinawa, Ryukyus & Southern Japan should closely monitor the progress of ROKE (ONYOK).

Do not use this for life or death decision. This advisory is intended for additional information purposes only. Kindly refer to your country's official weather agency for local warnings, advisories & bulletins.


Time/Date: 6:00 PM PhT Sun September 18 2011
Location of Center: 26.4º N Lat 130.4º E Lon
Distance 1: 252 km SSE of Naje Is., Ryukyus
Distance 2: 259 km East of Okinawa, Japan
Distance 3: 895 km ENE of Taipei, Taiwan
Distance 4: 1,078 km NE of Basco, Batanes
MaxWinds (1-min avg): 110 kph (60 kts) near the center
Peak Wind Gusts: 140 kph (75 kts)
Present Movement: NNW @ 11 kph (06 kts)
Towards: Southern Japan
24hr Rainfall Accum (near center): 350 mm (High)
Rainrate (near center): >30 mm/hr (VHeavy)
Minimum Central Pressure: 978 millibars (hPa)
Saffir-Simpson Typhoon Scale: Tropical Storm
Size (in Diameter): 740 km [Large]
Wind Area Distribution (in Knots): Current Wind Profile
Max Sea Wave Height (near center): 24 ft
Possible Storm Surge Height: 1-3 ft [0.3-0.9 m]
Wunder TrackMap (for Public): 2 PM PhT Sun Sep 17


ROKE (ONYOK) is expected to move north to NNE-ward during the next 12 to 24 hours...and will recurve more to the northeast over the next 48 to 72 hours. On the forecast track, the center of the storm will pass well to the east of the Ryukyus Monday afternoon and approach the southern shores of Honshu with a brief landfall near Tokyo on Wednesday afternoon or evening.

Maximum Sustained Winds (1-min. avg) remain near 110 km/hr (60 knots) with higher gusts. 18W is a Strong Tropical Storm (TS) on the Saffir-Simpson Tropical Cyclone Scale. Additional strengthening is forecast during the next 24 hours...and ROKE could become a Typhoon tonight or early tomorrow.

Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 km/hr) extend outward up to 220 kilometers (120 nautical miles) from the center.

The following is the summary of the 3-day forecast outlook on this system:

MONDAY AFTERNOON:  Upgraded to a Category 1 Typhoon as it begins veering NNE-ward slowly...about 155 km SSE of Naje Island, Ryukyus [2PM SEP 19: 27.4N 130.6 @ 130kph].
TUESDAY AFTERNOON:  Starts decaying as it rapidly accelerates NE-ward away from Ryukyus...about 415 km SSW of Kochi, Japan [2PM SEP 20: 29.9N 133.0E @ 120kph].
WEDNESDAY AFTERNOON:  Quickly moving towards the NE as it bears down the coast of Southern Honshu...approaching Metropolitan Tokyo...about 128 km SW of Tokyo [2PM SEP 21: 34.7 139.0E @ 120kph].

*Please be reminded that the Forecast Outlook changes every 6 hours, and the Day 3 Forecast Track have an average error of 250 km...while the wind speed forecast error, averages 35 kph per day. Therefore, a turn to the left or right of its future track and changes in its wind speed must be anticipated from time to time.


ROKE's (ONYOK) circulation has been improving throughout the day with the development of a Central Dense Overcast (CDO). Below is the summary of the storm's parts and its hazards affecting specific areas:

CENTRAL DENSE OVERCAST (CDO) - over water (Western Pacific)...possible "Eye" forming underneath the cirrus canopy. Near-Typhoon Conditions w/ Near-Typhoon Force Winds (100-130 kph) will be expected along the CDO. (click here to know more about CDO).
INNER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across Okinawa & the Ryukyus. Tropical Storm Conditions w/ Tropical Storm Force Winds (62-117 kph) will be expected along these bands.
OUTER RAINBANDS - affecting & spreading across North Philippine Sea, East China Sea & the coastal areas of Southern Kyushu. Tropical Depression Conditions w/ moderate to strong winds (25-61 kph) will be expected along these bands (click here to know more about Rainbands).
24HR TOTAL RAINFALL ACCUMULATION - from 5 up to 100 mm (low to high rainfall) can be expected along areas affected by the outer & inner rainbands (see above)...with isolated amounts of 101 to 350 mm (medium to high) along areas near the center of ROKE (ONYOK). (click to open NOAA's eTRaP graphic).

CURRENT SW MONSOON INTENSITY: MODERATE >> Mostly cloudy skies with passing occasional showers, rains or thunderstorms w/ squalls will be expected across the following affected areas: WESTERN COAST OF NORTHERN & CENTRAL LUZON. Light to moderate SW'ly winds (not in excess of 35 kph) will blow across the abovementioned areas.

Important Note: Please keep in mind that the above forecast outlook, effects-hazards, current monsoon intensity, & tropical cyclone watch changes every 6 to 12 hrs!

External Links for TS ROKE (ONYOK)

View NOAA-CIRA's: Latest Full Wind Analysis
JTWC Latest Tracking Chart: wp1811.gif
Multi-Agency Forecast TrackMap: Near Real-Time
TSR Wind Probabilities: Current to 5 Days Ahead
JAXA TRMM Page: Latest Rainrate (in mm/hr)
Zoomed Satellite Pic: NOAA's Near Real-Time
Wunderground Animation: 6-12 hr. GIF Loop


>> To know the meteorological terminologies and acronyms used on this update visit the ff:

For the complete details on TS ROKE (ONYOK)...go visit our website @:


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